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基地系列:第二基地|Second Foundation

第二章 谢顿计划|Chapter 2

属类: 双语小说 【分类】魔幻小说 -[作者: 艾萨克-阿西莫夫] 阅读:[15329]
《第二基地》是“基地”系列三部曲的最后一部。“谜”一般的第二基地的存在成了众矢之的,骡要铲除它,而第一基地的移民为了一个完全不同的理由也必须找到它,但是它究竟在哪里呢?这部故事就是各方人马找寻第二基地的传奇。骡倾全力寻找并铲除第二基地,却失败了。随后,基地人员也千方百计寻找第二基地,因为他们不愿把建立新帝国的功业拱手让人。谁也没想到,寻找的线索竟维系在一位小女孩身上。十四岁的艾嘉蒂娅怕得要死,她究竟发现了有关第二基地的什么秘密呢?
字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 字+字- 行+行- 页+页-
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请想像出一个房间!

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房间在何处现在还不重要,只要知道这个房间是第二基地的一个重要所在。

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几个世纪以来,这个房间一直保存着一门纯粹的科学——然而,数千年来被人们视为与科学同义的各种装置、设备、仪器等等,在此地却完全付之阙如。因为这里所保存的科学,只是以数学概念表达的理论。在科技尚未萌芽的史前原始时代,人类还集中于一个如今已经失落的世界时,先民中的智者所进行的冥想,其实就与这门科学的形式有些神似。

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这个房间受到精神科学力量的保护。放眼当今银河,即使一切有形力量加在一起,也无法与这种精神科学相抗衡。

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室内有一个较为显眼的物件——元光体,内部珍藏着谢顿计划的所有细节。

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此外,室内还有一个人——首席发言者。

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他是谢顿计划的第十二任最高监护者,而他所拥有的头衔,代表的就是表面上的意义——在第二基地领导者集会的场合,他是首先发言的一位。

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他的前任曾经击败过骡,然而那场大规模奋战所留下的后遗症,至今仍然扰乱着谢顿计划的前途。过去二十五年以来,他与他所领导的组织,致力于将满是顽固、愚昧人类的银河重新纳入正轨——这是一项艰巨至极的工作。

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现在,首席发言者抬起头来,看着渐渐打开的门。在这个孤寂的房间中,他正回顾着自己四分之一世纪来的努力——如今,这一切终于将要臻至顶点。虽然此时他是如此地专注,却仍有余裕以安然的心情期待着来人。他是一名年轻的弟子,将来,这些弟子中总有一位要继承他的位子。

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年轻人此时正不知所措地站在门口,因此首席发言者向他走过去,将他领进室内,并且伸出一只手,亲切地按在他的肩头。

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弟子露出羞赧的微笑,首席发言者对他的回应则是:“首先,我必须告诉你请你到这里来的目的。”

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他们现在隔着书桌面对面坐着,两个人都没有真正开口说话。他们所使用的沟通方式,银河中任何一个不属于第二基地的人,全都无法会意或了解。

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语言,是人类用来表达内心思想与感情的方法。它并非与生俱来的,必须经过学习的过程,也不能算是一种完美的沟通方式。人类所建立的语言沟通模式,只是利用各种声音的组合来表示精神的状态。然而这种方法却极为笨拙,而且表达能力明显不足,只能将心灵中细腻的思想,转换成发声器官所发出的迟钝声音。

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追根究底,一直向深层探索下去,我们就能够发现,人类蒙受的一切苦难,都可以追溯到一个事实——那就是在银河的历史上,几乎没有任何人能够了解他人的心思。也许只有哈里·谢顿,以及其后的极少数人例外。每一个人都将自己隐藏在他人无法穿透的迷雾中,而每团迷雾里也只有一个人。偶尔,从某团迷雾会透出一丝微弱模糊的讯号,而人类就是借着这些讯号互相摸索。然而,由于相互之间无法了解,也就不能彼此互信互谅,所以每个人从幼年时代开始,始终处于一种绝对孤寂的状态,时时刻刻都会感到恐惧不安。长此以往,便导致了人与人之间的猜忌与迫害。

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数十万年以来,人类的双脚在泥泞中蹒跚前进,心灵也因此被压制了同样久的时间。事实上,心灵的力量早就可以带领人类飞向天际。

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过去,人类本能地努力寻找打破语言桎梏的方法,语意学、符号逻辑、精神分析……这些学问的目的都是要将语言精炼,甚至完全舍弃普通的语言。

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心理史学是精神科学的一个重要发展方向。经过许多世代的努力,精神科学的数学化终于大功告成。为了了解神经系统的生理学与电化学——这必须一直钻研到核力的领域——因而相关的数学也有了长足的进展。利用这些最新发展的数学,心理学首度成为一门真正的科学:将心理学的知识从个体推广到群体,社会学的数字化过程也因此完成。

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而较大的人类群体——例如一个行星上的数十亿人,一个星区中的数兆居民,乃至整个银河的千兆人口——就不仅仅只是众多人类的集合,其活动也成了能以统计方法处理的历史趋势。因此对于哈里·谢顿而言,历史的发展都是必然的,未来的一切都清楚地呈现眼前,而预设的计划则是绝对可行的。

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这种导致谢顿计划发展的精神科学基础,也使第二基地得以超越语言。因此当首席发言者与弟子沟通时,他完全不需要开口发声。

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人类心灵对于某个刺激的反应,不论引起的生物电流多么微弱,都能完整显示其内在的各种细微变化。因此,首席发言者能够直接感知弟子的情感内容。不过他的能力是长久训练的成果,而并非像骡那样,生来就具有超人的感应力。骡是一个独一无二的突变种,具有普通人无法了解的异能,甚至连第二基地的人也不能完全掌握。

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然而,在我们这个必须靠语言沟通的社会里,仅只使用普通的文字,根本不可能表达出第二基地人士沟通的真正方式。所以从现在开始,我们只好假装忘掉这个环节,让首席发言者的信息以普通的会话表现。即使这项“翻译”偶尔会有失真之处,也是不得已的情况下最好的办法。

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从现在开始,我们姑且认为首席发言者的确在说:“首先,我必须告诉你请你到这里来的目的。”而不再描述那是一个微笑、一个手部动作所代表的信息。

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接着,首席发言者又说:“你从小到现在,几乎都在努力钻研精神科学,而且成绩相当优秀,已经将老师能够教给你的全部吸收。现在,你和其他几位同学,都可以成为见习发言者了。”

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书桌对面突然传来一阵兴奋的情绪。

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“不——你必须冷静地接受这个消息。你一直希望有资格被选上,并且担心自己落选。事实上,希望与担忧的情绪都是弱点。你明知道自己够资格,却又不太敢承认,害怕会给人留下过分自信,因而不适合这份工作的印象。这真是荒谬!最无可救药的笨人,就是聪明却没有自知之明的人。你对于自己的信心,其实也是你入选的原因之一。”

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坐在书桌对面的弟子松了一口气。

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“对,现在你的心情轻松许多,警戒也放松了,这样才有办法集中精神,才能够了解我将要对你说的话。记住,想要有效地发挥精神力量,并不需要将心灵绷得紧紧的。对于探测器而言,那无异是一种空洞的精神状态。此外,你应该培养一种单纯的心境,一种对自我的认知,一种无我的意识,如此任何情绪才能无所遁形。我的心灵现在已经对你敞开,让我们两人都达到这种境界。”

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然后,他又继续说:“当一名发言者并不容易。其实,做一个心理史学家就不简单,然而即使最优秀的心理史学家,也不一定够格成为一名发言者,这两者是有区别的。发言者不仅要了解谢顿计划的复杂数学结构,还必须与这个计划及其目的相互共鸣;要热爱这个计划,并且将计划当成自己的生命。除此之外,还需要把它当作一位活生生的好朋友。你知道这是什么吗?”

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首席发言者的手抬起来,在书桌中央一个闪亮的黑色立方体上来回轻抚——那是一个毫不起眼的物件。

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“不知道,发言者,我不知道。”

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“你听说过元光体吗?”

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“这就是吗?”声音中充满了惊讶。

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“你以为它看起来应该更高贵、更令人敬畏是吗?嗯,这也难怪。它是帝国时代的产物,由谢顿时代的工匠制成。近四百年来,它的表现都极为完美,从来不需要修理或调整。这可以算是我们的运气,因为就技术层面而言,第二基地没有任何人懂得它的构造和原理。”他轻轻一笑,又说,“第一基地的人也许有办法复制一个,不过,当然绝不能让他们知道。”

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他压下书桌旁的一根操纵杆,室内便陷入一片黑暗。

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不过在一瞬间之后,两侧的大幅墙壁便逐渐亮了起来。开始的时候是珍珠般的白色光芒,然后各处又现出了模糊的暗影,最后暗影凝聚成清晰整齐的黑色字体。那些字体构成了数不清的数学方程式,其间还穿插着许多蜿蜒的红色线条,仿佛是幽暗森林中的血色河流。

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“过来,孩子,站到墙壁前面来。你的影子不会映在墙上,元光体辐射光线的方式非常特殊。老实告诉你,我一点也不知道这种效应的原理,不过我可以肯定,你的影子不会出现在墙壁上。”

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他们一起站在光芒之中。两面墙的大小完全一样,都是十英尺高、三十英尺宽,墙上布满密密麻麻的蝇头小字,连一寸的空隙也没有。

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“这还不是整个谢顿计划,”首席发言者说,“如果想将整个计划写在这两面墙上,方程式必须缩小到肉眼不可见的尺度——不过没有这个必要。你现在看到的,代表至今为止谢顿计划的主要部分,你已经全都学过了,对不对?”

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“是的,发言者,我全部学过了。”

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“你能辨识其中任何一部分吗?”短暂的沉默之后,弟子举起手来。当他的手指指向墙壁时,一列列的方程式同时向下移动,直到他心中所想的那个函数级数挪到眼前。仅仅是手指一个迅速而不经意的动作,就能如此精准,真是不可思议。

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首席发言者发出轻笑声:“你将发现元光体能与你的心灵调谐,今后,你还会发现这个小装置有更多意想不到的功能。对于你所选取的这个方程式,你有什么心得?”

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弟子支吾地说:“这是瑞格积分,利用整个行星的心理倾向分布,还有不稳定的情感模式,来表现行星上存在的两种主要经济阶级——它的范围也可以扩大为整个星区。”

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“它的意义又是什么呢?”

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“它代表张力的极限,因为在这里——”弟子伸手一指,众多的方程式随即同时众多的方程式随即同时众多的方程式随即同时众多的方程式随即同时。”

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“很好,”首席发言者道,“现在告诉我,你对这个结果有何感想——一个完美的杰作,对不对?”

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“绝对是的!”

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“错了!并非如此。”首席发言者的语气突然变得异常严厉,“这是你第一个必须纠正的观念。谢顿计划其实既不完整,也并非百分之百正确,反之,它只是如今我们所能做到的最佳结果。过去已经有十几代的先人,曾在这上面花了无数心血——研究这些方程式,将它们分解到最细微之处,然后又重新组合起来。除此之外,他们还静观近四百年的历史发展,将这些发展与方程式的预测相互对照,检查方程式的真实性,从中学习到许多新的知识。”

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“结果,他们学到了不少谢顿都不知道的东西。数个世纪以来所累积的这些知识,不但可以让我们重新导出谢顿的结果,甚至可以比他当年做得更好。这一点,你是否能够完全明白?”

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弟子显得有些愕然。

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“在你获得发言权之前,”首席发言者继续说道,“你自己也必须对谢顿计划有原创性的贡献。这并不是对谢顿的亵渎,事实上墙壁上的每一个红色记号,都代表谢顿之后的发言者所做的修正与补充。嗯……”

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他抬头向上看了看,然后说:“在那里。”

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整个墙壁似乎立时盘旋而下,向他们两人当头罩了下来。

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“这一部分,”他说,“就是我的成绩。”他所指的那一块,是一个被红线圈住的两个分歧箭头,箭头旁边各有六平方尺的数学推导,其间则是一大串红色的方程式。首席发言者又说:“看起来没有什么,它所描述的是未来的发展。虽然谢顿计划已经进行了那么久,可是即使再过一倍的时间,这个情况也还不会出现。那是一个合并期,此时第二帝国业已形成,却掌握在两个敌对实力的手中。假如两者势均力敌的话,便可能使帝国分裂;然而若是势力太过悬殊,帝国又会被占上风的一方钳制得太紧。两种可能性在此都已考虑到了,并且已经详加解释,也指出了避免这两者发生的方法。”

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“然而这是一个几率问题,因此还有第三种可能的结果存在。这个结果的可能性很小——准确的数字是千分之一百二十六点四——然而,纵使对应于更小几率的事件,过去也都曾经发生过,而谢顿计划目前只完成了百分之四十。这第三种可能性,是当时两个或更多的敌对势力达成妥协。根据我的推导,这个结果会使第二帝国陷入无效益的模式,最后终将引发内战。与毫无妥协的结果比较起来,这种发展将对帝国造成更大的伤害。幸好这也是可以避免的,而这就是我个人的贡献。”

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“请原谅我打个岔,发言者——修正要如何进行呢?”

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“利用元光体作为媒介。比如说,就拿你自己作例子,你的数学推导将由五个评议会严格审查,然后在口试中,他们会一致对你提出无情的抨击,而你必须一一提出圆满的解释。两年以后,你的成果将会再次接受审核。过去曾经发生过不止一次,一个看来似乎完美无瑕的理论,经过数个月乃至数年的试用期后,其中的破绽才被发现。有些时候,还是发明者自己发现的。”

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“两年以后的第二次口试,绝不会比第一次简单。假使你仍然能够顺利通过,你的结果便会成为谢顿计划的一部分。如果在这段期间,你能够发现更多的细节、辅助的证据等等,那就更加理想了。我将这件事视为一生中最高的成就,而你将来也会拥有这份光荣。”

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“元光体可以调节到与你的心灵契合,所有的修正、补充都可以透过精神融合进行。不过你所做的修正与补充,都不会在任何地方留下你的名字。在计划执行的历史中,个人并不存在,它是我们集体的成果。你能够了解吗?”

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“我能了解,发言者!”

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“好,这方面谈得够多了。”他大步走到元光体前,墙壁上的显像在一瞬间全部消失,只剩下最上方射出的室内照明光芒。

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“坐到我的书桌旁边来,让我再跟你说几句话。对于一位心理史学家而言,能了解《生物统计》和《神经化电数学》就足够了。很多心理史学家只精通这两门科学,因此仅能担任一名统计技术员。然而身为一位发言者,却要能够使用普通的语言讨论谢顿计划,而完全不必提到数学。即使不能如此畅谈计划的内容,至少要能讨论计划的目的与其哲学意义。”

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“首先我想问你,谢顿计划的目的究竟何在?请用你自己的话回答我,不要咬文嚼字。我向你保证,你的辞藻和语气都不在评分范围之内。”

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这是弟子第一次有机会畅所欲言,在开始发表长篇大论之前,他迟疑了一下,然后才用不太有自信的口吻说:“根据我所学到的知识,我相信谢顿计划的意图是要建立一个新的文明,而这个文明的基础,在过去的历史上从未出现过。根据心理史学的计算结果,这种发展导向绝对不可能自行出现……”

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“停!”首席发言者强调,“你不可以用‘绝对’这两个字,那是一种偷懒而不负责任的说法。事实上,心理史学能够预测的只有几率,某个特殊事件也许极不可能发生,但是几率却总是大于零。”

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“是的,发言者,请准许我修正刚才的答案——大家都知道,这种发展导向自行出现的几率相当小。”

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“这样说就好多了。这种导向又是什么呢?”

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“就是一个植基于精神科学的文明。在所有已知的人类历史中,主要都是有形的科技在不断进展,也就是说,人类驾驭周遭无生物的能力越来越强。然而,人类对于自身以及社会的控制,凭借的只是随机的摸索,或者是以灵感、直觉、情感为基础的伦理体系。结果,在人类过去的历史中,从未出现过稳定度大于百分之五十五的文明,这可说是人类的大不幸。”

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“我们所讨论的这个导向,为什么几乎无法自行出现?”

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“因为在人类的精英分子中,大多数只具有发展物理科学的潜能,他们也的确获得了一些眼前的粗糙成就。仅有极少数的人,天生适于研究精神科学,惟有他们能够为人类开拓精神科学的领域。这些人的贡献虽然能持续得更久,可是他们提出的理论却过于玄妙而隐晦。此外,这种导向会导致一个由精神力量最高者——实际上就是更高级的一种人类——所构成的统治阶级,普通人一定会对此不满,因此他们的统治不可能稳定。除非他们施展精神力量,将普通人全都贬成畜牲一般。这样的发展是我们绝不愿见到的,因此必须设法避免。”

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“那么,解决之道又是什么呢?”

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“解决之道就是谢顿计划。这个计划安排并维系了各种有利的条件,使得在计划开展的千年之后——也就是再过六百年——第二银河帝国便会兴起,同时人类也已经能够接受精神科学的领导。在这一千年之中,第二基地借着精神科学的发展,将培养出一批心理学家,准备接掌这个帝国的领导权。我自己常常想,或许可以这么说——第一基地建立起一统政体的有形架构,第二基地则提供统治阶层的精神架构。”

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“很好,答得相当完善。即使在谢顿所预期的那个年代,真的会有某个第二帝国兴起,你认为是否就能真正实现他的理想?”

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“不,发言者,我认为并非如此。从计划开展之后的九百至一千七百年间,有好几个第二帝国可能出现,但是其中只有一个是真正的‘第二帝国’。”

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“就这方面而言,第二基地的存在为什么需要保密——尤其需要对第一基地保密?”

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弟子试图找出这个问题的弦外之音,结果毫无所获,所以答得相当吃力:“就如同整个计划的细节必须对人类保密一样。心理史学定律本质上是统计性的,如果个人的反应并非是随机的,那么心理史学就会失效;如果一大群人知晓了谢顿计划的主要内容,他们的反应就会因此受到影响,而不再符合心理史学公设中的随机条件。换句话说,心理史学便无法再精确预测他们的行为。很抱歉,发言者,我自己也对这样的回答并不满意。”

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“幸好你有自知之明,你的回答相当不完整。其实是第二基地必须隐藏起来,而并非仅是谢顿计划。第二帝国目前尚未形成,如今的人类社会,仍旧无法接受心理学家组成的统治阶层,因此会畏惧第二帝国的建立,并且将会起而反抗。你能了解这一点吗?”

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“是的,发言者,我懂。但是老师从未强调过……”

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“千万不可小看这一点,虽然在课堂中,老师们从来没有提过,可是你自己应该有能力推出这个结论。从现在开始,在你见习的这段期间,除了这一点之外,我们还要好好研究许多类似的问题。我现在给你一个题目,一个星期之后再来见我,下次来的时候,我想要听听你的心得报告。我不要你做完整严密的数学推导,即使专家也要花上一年的时间,你在一周之内是不可能做到的。不过,我希望你提一提其中的倾向与发展方向……”

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“你看这里,在大约半个世纪前,谢顿计划出现了一个分叉,这个变化发生的几率低于千分之十,必要的细节都在里面。你将会发现,如果根据这个路径发展下去,所有的事件都会偏离原有的计划。我要你估算一下,这个偏差的发展持续多久之后,就会使得整个计划无法挽回。顺便估计一下,如果无法挽回的话,最后可能的结果是什么,并且提出一个合理的补救方案。”

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弟子随意拨动着阅读镜,木然地看着小型荧幕中的内容。

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然后弟子问道:“请问为什么要我研究这个问题,发言者?除了纯学术的探讨之外,它显然还有其他的意义。”

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“谢谢你,好孩子,不出我所料,你学得很快。这个问题并不是假设性的——大约在半个世纪之前,骡突然跃上银河历史的舞台,前后十年之间,他是宇宙间最大的单一事件。骡并不在算计之中,我们对他也毫无准备,结果他对谢顿计划造成了严重的破坏,幸好还没有到回天乏术的地步。”

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“然而,为了在他造成致命破坏之前阻止他,我们遂被迫主动与他为敌,因此暴露了我们的存在,而更糟更糟的一点,是我们的部分能力也因而曝光。第一基地从此知悉了我们的存在,而他们今后将会采取的行动,就可以根据这个事实预测出来。仔细审视面前的这个问题——这里,还有这里。”

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“自然,你不可以对任何人泄露这件事。”

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弟子终于体会到了问题的严重性,这使他惊骇不已。沉默了好一会儿之后,他才又说:“那么谢顿计划已经失败了!”

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“还没有,只是有可能会失败。根据最近一次的估计,计划成功的几率还有千分之二百一十四。”

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Consider a room!

1
MATHEMATICS The synthesis of the calculus of n-variables and of n-dimensional geometry is the basis of what Seldon once called "my little algebra of humanity"....

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The location of the room is not in question at the moment. It is merely sufficient to say that in that room, more than anywhere, the Second Foundation existed.

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It was a room which, through the centuries, had been the abode of pure science ?yet it had none of the gadgets with which, through millennia of association, science has come to be considered equivalent. It was a science, instead, which dealt with mathematical concepts only, in a manner similar to the speculation of ancient, ancient races in the primitive , prehistoric days before technology had come to be; before Man had spread beyond a single, now-unknown world.

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For one thing, there was in that room ?protected by a mental science as yet unassailable by the combined physical might of the rest of the Galaxy ?the Prime Radiant, which held in its vitals the Seldon Plan ?complete.

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For another, there was a man, too, in that room ?The First Speaker.

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He was the twelfth in the line of chief guardians of the Plan, and his title bore no deeper significance than the fact that at the gatherings of the leaders of the Second Foundation, he spoke first.

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His predecessor had beaten the Mule , but the wreckage of that gigantic struggle still littered the path of the Plan?For twenty-five years, he, and his administration, had been trying to force a Galaxy of stubborn and stupid human beings back to the path?It was a terrible task.

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The First Speaker looked up at the opening door. Even while, in the loneliness of the room, he considered his quarter century of effort, which now so slowly and inevitably approached its climax ; even while he had been so engaged, his mind had been considering the newcomer with a gentle expectation. A youth, a student, one of those who might take over, eventually.

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The young man stood uncertainly at the door, so that the First Speaker had to walk to him and lead him in, with a friendly hand upon the shoulder.

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The Student smiled shyly, and the First Speaker responded by saying, "First, I must tell you why you are here."

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They faced each other now, across the desk. Neither was speaking in any way that could be recognized as such by any man in the Galaxy who was not himself a member of the Second Foundation.

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Speech, originally, was the device whereby Man learned, imperfectly, to transmit the thoughts and emotions of his mind. By setting up arbitrary sounds and combinations of sounds to represent certain mental nuances, be developed a method of communication ?but one which in its clumsiness and thick-thumbed inadequacy degenerated

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all the delicacy of the mind into gross and guttural signaling.

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Down?down?the results can be followed; and all the suffering that humanity ever knew can be traced to the one fact that no man in the history of the Galaxy, until Hari Seldon, and very few men thereafter, could really understand one another. Every human being lived behind an impenetrable wall of choking mist within which no other but he existed. Occasionally there were the dim signals from deep within the cavern in which another man was located-so that each might grope toward the other. Yet because they did not know one another, and could not understand one another, and dared not trust one another, and felt from infancy the terrors and insecurity of that ultimate isolation ?there was the hunted fear of man for man, the savage rapacity

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of man toward man.

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Feet, for tens of thousands of years, had clogged and shuffled in the mud ?and held down the minds which, for an equal time, had been fit for the companionship of the stars.

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Grimly, Man had instinctively sought to circumvent the prison bars of ordinary speech. Semantics, symbolic logic , psychoanalysis ?they had all been devices whereby speech could either be refined or by-passed.

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Psychohistory had been the development of mental science, the final mathematicization thereof, rather, which had finally succeeded. Through the development of the mathematics necessary to understand the facts of neural physiology and the electrochemistry of the nervous system, which themselves had to be, had to be, traced down to nuclear forces, it first became possible to truly develop psychology . And through the generalization of psychological knowledge from the individual to the group, sociology was also mathematicized.

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The larger groups; the billions that occupied planets; the trillions that occupied Sectors ; the quadrillions that occupied the whole Galaxy, became, not simply human beings, but gigantic forces amenable to statistical treatment ?so that to Hari Seldon, the future became clear and inevitable , and the Plan could be set up.

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The same basic developments of mental science that had brought about the development of the Seldon Plan, thus made it also unnecessary for the First Speaker to use words in addressing the Student.

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Every reaction to a stimulus , however slight, was completely indicative of all the trifling changes, of all the flickering currents that went on in another's mind. The First Speaker could not sense the emotional content of the Student's instinctively, as the Mule would have been able to do ?since the Mule was a mutant with powers not ever likely to become completely comprehensible to any ordinary man, even a Second Foundationer ?rather he deduced them, as the result of intensive training.

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Since, however, it is inherently impossible in a society based on speech to indicate truly the method of communication of Second Foundationers among themselves, the whole matter will be hereafter ignored. The First Speaker will be represented as speaking in ordinary fashion, and if the translation is not always entirely valid

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, it is at least the best that can be done under the circumstances.

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It will be pretended therefore, that the First Speaker did actually say, "First, I must tell you why you are here," instead of smiling just so and lifting a finger exactly thus.

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The First Speaker said, "You have studied mental science hard and well for most of your life. You have absorbed all your teachers could give you. It is time for you and a few others like yourself to begin your apprenticeship for Speakerhood."

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Agitation from the other side of the desk.

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"No ?now you must take this phlegmatically . You had hoped you would qualify. You had feared you would not. Actually, both hope and fear are weaknesses. You knew you would qualify and you hesitate to admit the fact because such knowledge might stamp you as cocksure and therefore unfit. Nonsense! The most hopelessly stupid man is he who is not aware that he is wise. It is part of your qualification that you knew you would qualify."

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Relaxation on the other side of the desk.

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"Exactly. Now you feel better and your guard is down. You are fitter to concentrate and fitter to understand. Remember, to be truly effective, it is not necessary to hold the mind under a tight, controlling barrier which to the intelligent probe is as informative as a naked mentality . Rather, one should cultivate an innocence , an awareness of self, and an unself-consciousness of self which leaves one nothing to hide. My mind is open to you. Let this be so for both of us."

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He went on. "It is not an easy thing to be a Speaker. It is not an easy thing to be a Psychohistorian in the first place; and not even the best Psychohistorian need necessarily qualify to be a Speaker. There is a distinction here. A Speaker must not only be aware of the mathematical intricacies of the Seldon Plan; he must have a sympathy for it and for its ends. He must love the Plan; to him it must be life and breath. More than that it must even be as a living friend.

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"Do you know what this is?"

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The First Speaker's hand hovered gently over the black, shining cube in the middle of the desk. It was featureless.

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"No, Speaker, I do not."

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"You have heard of the Prime Radiant?"

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"This?" 朅stonishment.

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"You expected something more noble and awe-inspiring? Well, that is natural. It was created in the days of the Empire, by men of Seldon's time. For nearly four hundred years, it has served our needs perfectly , without requiring repairs or adjustment. And fortunately so, since none of the Second Foundation is qualified to handle it in any technical fashion." He smiled gently. "Those of the First Foundation might be able to duplicate this, but they must never know, of course."

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He depressed a lever on his side of the desk and the room was in darkness. But only for a moment, since with a gradually livening flush, the two long walls of the room glowed to life. First, a pearly white, unrelieved, then a trace of faint darkness here and there, and finally, the fine neatly printed equations in black, with an occasional red hairline that wavered through the darker forest like a staggering rillet.

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"Come, my boy, step here before the wall. You will not cast a shadow. This light does not radiate from the Radiant in an ordinary manner. To tell you the truth, I do not know even faintly by what medium this effect is produced, but you will not cast a shadow. I know that."

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They stood together in the light. Each wall was thirty feet long, and ten high. The writing was small and covered every inch.

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"This is not the whole Plan," said the First Speaker. "To get it all upon both walls, the individual equations would have to be reduced to microscopic size ?but that is not necessary. What you now see represents the main portions of the Plan till now. You have learned about this, have you not?"

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"Yes, Speaker, I have."

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"Do you recognize any portion."

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A slow silence. The student pointed a finger and as he did so, the line of equations marched down the wall, until the single series of functions he had thought of ?one could scarcely consider the quick, generalized gesture of the finger to have been sufficiently precise ?was at eye-level.

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The First Speaker laughed softly, "You will find the Prime Radiant to be attuned to your mind. You may expect more surprises from the little gadget . What were you about to say about the equation you have chosen?"

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"It," faltered the Student, "is a Rigellian integral, using a planetary distribution of a bias indicating the presence of two chief economic classes on the planet, or maybe a Sector , plus an unstable emotional pattern."

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"And what does it signify?"

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"It represents the limit of tension, since we have here" ?he pointed, and again the equations veered ?"a converging series."

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"Good," said the First Speaker. "And tell me, what do you think of all this. A finished work of art, is it not?"

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"Definitely!"

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"Wrong! It is not." This, with sharpness. "It is the first lesson you must unlearn. The Seldon Plan is neither complete nor correct. Instead, it is merely the best that could be done at the time. Over a dozen generations of men have pored over these equations, worked at them, taken them apart to the last decimal place, and put them together again. They've done more than that. They've watched nearly four hundred years pass and against the predictions and equations, they've checked reality, and they have learned.

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"They have learned more than Seldon ever knew, and if with the accumulated knowledge of the centuries we could repeat Seldon's work, we could do a better job. Is that perfectly clear to you?"

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The Student appeared a little shocked.

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"Before you obtain your Speakerhood," continued the First Speaker, "you yourself will have to make an original contribution to the Plan. It is not such great blasphemy . Every red mark you see on the wall is the contribution of a man among us who lived since Seldon. Why ... why? He looked upward, "There!"

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The whole wall seemed to whirl down upon him.

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"This," he said, "is mine." A fine red line encircled two forking arrows and included six square feet of deductions along each path. Between the two were a series of equations in red.

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"It does not," said the Speaker, "seem to be much. It is at a point in the Plan which we will not reach yet for a time as long as that which has already passed. It is at the period of coalescence , when the Second Empire that is to be is in the grip of rival personalities who will threaten to pull it apart if the fight is too even, or clamp it into rigidity , if the fight is too uneven . Both possibilities are considered here, followed, and the method of avoiding either indicated.

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"Yet it is all a matter of probabilities and a third course can exist. It is one of comparatively low likelihood ?twelve point six four percent, to be exact ?but even smaller chances have already come to pass and the Plan is only forty percent complete. This third probability consists of a possible compromise between two or more of the conflicting personalities being considered. This, I showed, would first freeze the Second Empire into an unprofitable mold, and then, eventually, inflict more damage through civil wars than would have taken place had a compromise never been made in the first place. Fortunately, that could be prevented, too. And that was my contribution."

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"If I may interrupt, Speaker?How is a change made?"

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"Through the agency of the Radiant. You will find in your own case, for instance, that your mathematics will be checked rigorously by five different boards; and that you will be required to defend it against a concerted and merciless attack. Two years will then pass, and your development will be reviewed again. It has happened more than once that a seemingly perfect piece of work has uncovered its fallacies only after an induction period of months or years. Sometimes, the contributor himself discovers the flaw.

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"If, after two years, another examination, not less detailed than the first, still passes it, and ?better still ?if in the interim the young scientist has brought to light additional details, subsidiary evidence, the contribution will be added to the Plan. It was the climax of my career; it will be the climax of yours.

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"The Prime Radiant can be adjusted to your mind, and all corrections and additions can be made through mental rapport . There will be nothing to indicate that the correction or addition is yours. In all the history of the Plan there has been no personalization. It is rather a creation of all of us together. Do you understand?"

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"Yes, Speaker!"

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"Then, enough of that." A stride to the Prime Radiant, and the walls were blank again save for the ordinary room-lighting region along the upper borders. "Sit down here at my desk, and let me talk to you. It is enough for a Psychohistorian, as such, to know his Biostatistics and his Neurochemical Electromathematics. Some know nothing else and are fit only to be statistical technicians. But a Speaker must be able to discuss the Plan without mathematics. If not the Plan itself, at least its philosophy and its aims.

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"First of all, what is the aim of the Plan? Please tell me in your own words ?and don't grope for fine sentiment. You won't be judged on polish and suavity , I assure you."

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It was the Student's first chance at more than a bisyllable, and he hesitated before plunging into the expectant space cleared away for him. He said, diffidently: "As a result of what I have learned, I believe that it is the intention of the Plan to establish a human civilization based on an orientation entirely different from anything that ever before existed. An orientation which, according to the findings of Psychohistory, could never spontaneously come into being?

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"Stop!" The First Speaker was insistent . 'You must not say 'never.' That is a lazy slurring over of the facts. Actually, Psychohistory predicts only probabilities. A particular event may be infinitesimally probable, but the probability is always greater than zero."

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"Yes, Speaker. The orientation desired, if I may correct myself, then, is well known to possess no significant probability of spontaneously coming to pass."

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"Better. What is the orientation?"

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"It is that of a civilization based on mental science. In all the known history of Mankind, advances have been made primarily in physical technology; in the capacity of handling the inanimate world about Man. Control of self and society has been left to chance or to the vague gropings of intuitive ethical systems based on inspiration and emotion. As a result, no culture of greater stability than about fifty-five percent has ever existed, and these only as the result of great human misery ."

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"And why is the orientation we speak of a nonspontaneous one?"

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"Because a large minority of human beings are mentally equipped to take part in the advance of physical science, and all receive the crude and visible benefits thereof. Only an insignificant minority, however, are inherently able to lead Man through the greater involvements of Mental Science; and the benefits derived therefrom, while longer lasting , are more subtle and less apparent. Furthermore, since such an orientation would lead to the development of a benevolent dictatorship of the mentally best ?virtually a higher subdivision of Man ?it would be resented and could not be stable without the application of a force which would depress the rest of Mankind to brute level. Such a development is repugnant to us and must be avoided."

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"What, then, is the solution?"

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"The solution is the Seldon Plan. Conditions have been so arranged and so maintained that in a millennium from its beginnings ?six hundred years from now, a Second Galactic Empire will have been established in which Mankind will be ready for the leadership of Mental Science. In that same interval , the Second Foundation in its development, will have brought forth a group of Psychologists ready to assume leadership. Or, as I have myself often thought, the First Foundation supplies the physical framework of a single political unit, and the Second Foundation supplies the mental framework of a ready-made ruling class."

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"I see. Fairly adequate. Do you think that any Second Empire, even if formed in the time set by Seldon, would do as a fulfillment of his Plan?"

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"No, Speaker, I do not. There are several possible Second Empires that may be formed in the period of time stretching from nine hundred to seventeen hundred years after the inception of the Plan, but only one of these is the Second Empire."

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"And in view of all this, why is it necessary that the existence of the Second Foundation be hidden ?above all, from the First Foundation?"

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The Student probed for a hidden meaning to the question and failed to find it. He was troubled in his answer, "For the same reason that the details of the Plan as a whole must be hidden from Mankind in general. The laws of Psychohistory are statistical in nature and are rendered invalid if the actions of individual men are not random in nature. If a sizable group of human beings learned of key details of the Plan, their actions would be governed by that knowledge and would no longer be random in the meaning of the axioms of Psychohistory. In other words, they would no longer be perfectly predictable. Your pardon, Speaker, but I feel that the answer is not satisfactory."

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"It is well that you do. Your answer is quite incomplete. It is the Second Foundation itself which must be hidden, not simply the Plan. The Second Empire is not yet formed. We have still a society which would resent a ruling class of psychologists, and which would fear its development and fight against it. Do you understand that?"

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"Yes, Speaker, I do. The point has never been stressed?

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"Don't minimize. It has never been made ?in the classroom, though you should be capable of deducing it yourself. This and many other points we will make now and in the near future during your apprenticeship. You will see me again in a week. By that time, I would like to have comments from you as to a certain problem which I now set before you. I don't want complete and rigorous mathematical treatment. That would take a year for an expert, and not a week for you. But I do want an indication as to trends and directions

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"You have here a fork in the Plan at a period in time of about half a century ago. The necessary details are included. You will note that the path followed by the assumed reality diverges from all the plotted predictions; its probability being under one percent. You will estimate for how long the divergence may continue before it becomes uncorrectable. Estimate also the probable end if uncorrected, and a reasonable method of correction."

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The Student flipped the Viewer at random and looked stonily at the passages presented on the tiny, built-in screen.

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He said: "Why this particular problem, Speaker? It obviously has significance other than purely academic."

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"Thank you, my boy. You are as quick as I had expected. The problem is not suppositiiious. Nearly half a century ago, the Mule burst into Galactic history and for ten years was the largest single fact in the universe. He was unprovided for; uncalculated for. He bent the Plan seriously, but not fatally.

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"To stop him before he did become fatal, however, we were forced to take active part against him. We revealed our existence, and infinitely worse, a portion of our power. The First Foundation has learned of us, and their actions are now predicated on that knowledge. Observe in the problem presented. Here. And here.

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"Naturally, you will not speak of this to anyone."

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There was an appalled pause, as realization seeped into the Student. He said: "Then the Seldon Plan has failed!"

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"Not yet. It merely may have failed. The probabilities of success are still twenty-one point four percent, as of the last assessment."

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