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股票大作手回忆录|Memoirs of Stock Makers

第五章|Chapter V

属类： 双语小说 【分类】其他读物 -[作者: 爱德温-勒菲弗] 阅读：[9828]
主要讲述了利弗莫尔的一生，不但用鲜活的笔触，复原了他充满激情的生活历程，更从专业的角度，详细介绍了利弗莫尔的各种技巧，并用最准确的表述，无限接近了他的思想最深邃处。
自工业化洪流激荡整个社会后，资本市场就以其无限魅力，强劲地席卷更多人参与其中。在过往100年的金钱游戏里，无疑出现许多顶尖高手，但最被后人不能忘怀的非杰西·利弗莫尔莫属。对数字的极端敏感加之惊人的记忆力，使不到20岁的利弗莫尔，就掌握了一套无往不胜的技术方法，最终被以盘剥“肥羊”为生的所有对赌行拒之门外。随即他转战华尔街，历经几次沉浮，炼就了一套辨识市场趋势的“秘诀”。凭着市场趋势这一“最佳搭档”，数度击溃幕后操纵者，成为当之无愧的投机之王
《 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 》
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特别痴迷于股市的人会出错，我觉得这就像是太过专业化后就容易走入死胡同一样，少了灵活的东西就会得不偿失。不能只把投资看成是单靠数学或一些定律就能做好的事情。不管主要的法则多严格，就算我在看股市行情的时候，也不光是玩点计算题，其中有我称之为股票行为的东西，就是股票的动作，能够让我根据我所观察到的前例，判断股票是否会这样运动。如果一只股票不能尽如人意，就不能乱动。如果连其中的原因都搞不清，也就无法预估市场行情，没办法判断，就无法预测股票，也就赚不到钱。

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观察股票走势，研究过去的变化走向，这是一门古老的学问。刚来纽约时，我就在一家股票公司听到一个法国人卖弄他的图表，当时我以为他是公司的一个弄臣。但是后来我发现他说的话都经得起验证，富有感染力。他说股市图表是唯一不骗人的东西，靠着图表就可以预估股票走势，以此分析股市。比如为什么凯恩可以操纵股票，在炒作凯奇逊股票的时候大赚特赚，而在投资南太平洋股票的时候却一败涂地。有的职业股民也尝试过这个法国人的方法，可不久就走回了老路，他们觉得靠运气投机的风险没那么大。那个法国人说过，凯恩也确信他的图表是完全没错的，可是在变幻多端的股市中，这个方法太慢了。

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那时候，有一家股票公司保存了股价走势图，它能显示出几个月内每只股票的走势情形，通过比较个别股票和总的变化趋势，记住一些规律，股民们就能判断出他们靠不科学的消息买的股票是不是真的要上涨。他们把这张图当成了一种辅助性的资料来源。如今很多股票公司都有这样的图表，是统计专家们专门统计绘制的，除了股票走势外，还有商品期货的走势图。

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或者我可以这样说，图表只对能看懂图表的人起作用，准确点说，只对能吸收图表信息的人有所帮助。一般的人看图容易变得执迷不悟，认定底部和头部，主要和次要波动，就是股票投机的一切。要是他把这种信心推展到理智的极限，他注定会破产。有个脑瓜子好使的人，他做过一家著名交易所的合伙人，还是位有实力的数学家。他从知名技校毕业，发明了各种图表，他专门研究过大量市场——股票、债券、谷物、棉花、货币等各种东西的价格形势，还追溯它们过去几年的关联和变化的所有方面。很多年里，他都在使用图表，他所做的事情其实是利用一些极为高明的平均法。听说他是常胜将军，一直到世界大战改变了市场性质才作罢。他说他和手下人在退出市场之前，赔掉了几百万。可一切都得看形势，牛市就是牛市，熊市也只能是熊市，谁都没办法阻止。想赚钱的人，都必须要正确地预估形势，确定是不是具备条件。

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我无意这样谈论得离题太远，但是一想到自己在华尔街的最初几年，就忍不住这样。现在我弄懂了当时的很多事情，那时候犯的错都是一个普通投资人一直在犯的错。

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第三次到达纽约后，我干得很积极，就为了能在交易所出一条道，我不指望能像在对赌行一样厉害，但我想过一阵子，我应该能够用很多很多的资金操作，我应该会有更好的表现。我明白我最大的问题是没弄懂股票赌博与股票投机的差别，不过我毕竟有天赋和七年研究股市行情变化的经验，我不只是赚钱了，而且赚了很多。我像以前有赢有输，但大致上都能赢钱。我赚得多，消费得也多，大家都这样，不见得是所有赚了容易钱的人才这样，而是不愿意攒钱的人才大手大脚。罗素·塞奇就是如此，他能赚也能攒，到入土的时候钱多得惊人。

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每天，我都会从上午十点忙乎到下午三点，沉浸其中。三点以后，才是我享受生活的时刻。请别搞错，我不会让享受影响赚钱，我赔钱是因为判断出错，不是生活无度造成的。我从来不让精神恍惚或喝酒喝到手足酸麻妨碍我的游戏。任何事情都别想损害我的健康。就连现在我也常在十点前就入睡。即使年轻我也不熬夜，因为睡不好就干不好。我的表现比打平还好，这就是我认为不必剥夺生活中美好事物的原因。股市能满足你的所有需求，讲得职业一点儿，炒股是为了生活，所以要端正态度，自信心也就随之而来了。

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我在炒股中的第一个改变是时间因素。我不像在对赌行里等尘埃落定了再出手，赚个一两点，我现在想在富勒顿公司顺势而为，就要早出手、迅速，也就是说，我必须要钻研市场，预测形势。这听起来没什么意思，但你应该明白，在炒股上转变态度对我是非常重要的。我慢慢懂得了在股价不稳时赌一把和提前预估股价的跌涨，以及赌博与投机，它们之间有着根本的差异。

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我需要提前一小时以上的时间开始研究市场，就算在世界上最牛的对赌行，我也不可能明白这个。我对产业报告、铁路盈余、金融财务和商业统计都兴趣盎然。当然了，我喜欢玩大手笔，所以人们才送外号“投机分子”。我也爱研究股市行情，所有能帮助我去玩一把的事情，我都非常热心。在处理事情之前，我会仔细分析，只要觉得自己已经明白该从哪里入手了，就会去实际验证一番。自然，要证明只有一个办法，那就是用我的钱去证明。

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现在看来我的进步似乎比较慢，可是于我而言已经很快了，因为整体来看我还是赚了钱，如果一直赔钱的话，可能会刺激着我花更多精力去研究股市。我必然也有很多问题没察觉。但是我不敢肯定亏钱的真正价值，如果亏得太多，我就没钱验证我的那些改变是否有效了。

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研究我在富勒顿公司赚钱的操作方法之后我明白了，虽然我对股市行情和走势的预估一直是绝对正确的，但是我赚到的钱还是不多，原因何在？

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没有彻底胜利，就跟失败了一样，也需要研究一番才行。

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比如，在多头市场股价刚涨的时候，我就买进，它也按照我的预估在持续上涨，这就证明我的方法有效，到现在为止，一切都很顺利。那么我还需要做些什么呢？我听了老手们的话，不让年轻人莽撞乱窜，下决心小心谨慎地玩。谁都知道，要这样做，唯一的办法是获利落袋，然后在回调时买回你的股票。我就这么做了，确切点说，我尽量这么做着。我经常在获利落袋之后，等待从来没有出现的回调。我谨慎地怀揣着只有4个点的利润，可抛掉的股票还会继续上涨10个点，我只能眼睁睁地看着。大家都说钱能装到口袋就算有钱，是的，你是有点钱，可是在多头市场中只赚了4个点就收手，你也不会富有。

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本来能赚2万，而我只赚了2000，这是力求稳妥造成的。当我发现自己其实只赚到了本来该赚的那些钱的一小部分时，我也明白了一些其他道理：根据经验的多少，傻瓜也分不同的等级。

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新手一无所知，每一个人，包括他自己，都知道这一点。但是下一级或是下下一级的人认为他知道很多，而且让别人觉得他确实是这样。他是有经验的傻瓜，他做过研究，不是研究市场本身，而是研究更傻的人所说的一些市场评论。第二级傻瓜知道如何避免完全新手所犯的某些错误，避免亏损。就是这种半桶水，而不是百分之百的学徒，才是证券经纪商真正全年无忧的衣食父母。平均起来，这种人可以熬大约三年半，相比之下，通常第一次攻击华尔街的人只能熬3周到30周不等。那种半桶水的人，经常引述著名的交易格言以及各种游戏规则，他们对能言善辩的老手们所说的所有禁忌事项都一清二楚——只是不知道最重要的一条禁忌，就是不要当傻瓜。

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半桶水的这种人认为自己已经懂事了，他喜欢在下跌时买进。他等待股价下跌，他根据股价从头部跌下多少钱来判定是否捡到便宜。在牛市，纯粹的傻瓜完全不知道规则和前例，会盲目地买进，因为他有盲目的希望。他赚到最多的钱，一直到一次正常的调整把他所有的利润都拿走为止。但是谨慎的二级傻瓜——就像我自以为是地玩这个游戏时一样——所做的事情是根据别人的智慧操作。我知道我必须改变自己在对赌行交易的方法，也认为我正在解决自己的问题，用的是备受交易老手们推崇、具有极高价值的方法。

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大多数人都一样，你很难找到几个人能够诚实地说华尔街没有欠他们钱。富勒顿公司里也常有这样一群傻瓜，各种级别的都有。不过，有个老手显得很是鹤立鸡群。首先，他年龄比较大，其次，他没有好为人师的特点，也不卖弄赚了多少钱，他最擅长的是探听别人嘴里互传的各种内幕消息，而对市场本身的内幕不太热衷——也就是说，他从来不问说话的人听到什么或知道什么。要有人对他说了内幕消息，他会很感激，而且那些内幕消息如果确实起到了作用，他会更加感激，如果不准确，他也没什么怨言，所以别人不会知道他是不是真的受这些消息影响了。据说这人有很多钱，玩得也很大，只不过交易频率不是很高，至少别人所知的是这样。他叫帕特里奇，因为胸肌很发达，总把下巴托在胸前在各个屋子来回乱窜，所以人们偷偷给他起个“火鸡”的外号。

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这些客户全都乐于在别人催促下，被迫做一些事情，好把失败归咎到别人身上，他们经常去向帕特里奇请教，对他说有内幕消息的人建议他们买哪只股票，在出手之前希望能请帕特里奇指教一二。不过他们所说的内幕，无论是让他们抛掉的还是买进的，在帕特里奇那里得到的建议都是一样的。

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顾客们在说完困惑后总会问：“您觉得我该怎么做更好？”

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老火鸡脑袋一歪，满脸慈父般的笑容，盯着提问的人，富含深情地说：“你知道，这是牛市。”

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我就常听到他这么说：“嗯，你知道的，是牛市。”就好像他给你一个无价的护身符，用100万美元的保险单包起来一般，我确实听不明白他的意思到底是什么。

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有一天，一个叫艾尔默·哈伍德的人匆忙跑进来，填了一张单子交给办事的人后就去找帕特里奇。帕特里奇这时候正在听一个叫约翰·范宁的人在倒苦水：有次他听到凯恩填了张交易单给经纪人，也就跟着做了100股，卖掉后只赚了3个点，但是当他卖出后三天，这只股票就上涨了24个点。这个故事约翰对帕特里奇至少说过四次，可老火鸡总是微笑着点点头，就像刚听到一样。

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艾尔默直接打断了约翰，也没致歉，就走过去对老火鸡说：“帕特里奇先生，我刚卖了克莱曼汽车公司的股票，有知情人说市场应该会回调，到时候我再低价买回来，一定能赚的。你最好也一起玩吧，如果你还抱着这只股票的话，不会赔的。”

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艾尔默疑惑地看着老火鸡，像其他提供内幕消息的那些人一样，消息未得到证实，就认为他们拥有接受他们内幕消息的人的身心。

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老火鸡也是一副感激样儿：“是啊，哈伍德先生，我仍然抱着这只股票，当然抱着。”看来他非常感谢艾尔默心里还想着他这个老家伙。

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艾尔默说：“喏，这是你赚钱的机会，下一轮的时候再买进。”他像刚刚替老火鸡填写了存款单一样。看不到老火鸡脸上有什么感激神色，艾尔默继续说：“我刚才把我手里的都卖了。”从他的声音和样子来判断，你就是保守估计，也会认为他卖了100股。

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但是帕特里奇很遗憾地摇着头说：“不，不行，我不会卖的。”

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艾尔默大喊：“什么？”

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“我不能卖。”帕特里奇很苦恼地说。

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“我这不给你提供内幕消息让你卖吗？”

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“是啊，艾尔默先生，特别感激你，确实是，可是……”

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“慢着，你听我说完！难道这个股票不是十天涨了7个点吗？”

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“是这样，非常感谢，老弟，但我是不会卖的。”

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艾尔默很不理解：“你真不卖？”他一脸疑惑。人们在提供内幕消息给别人时就是这个样子。

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“不，我不卖。”

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艾尔默踏前了一步问：“为什么不卖啊？”

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“不为什么，现在是牛市。”一说这句话，就好像他的解释已经很到位了。

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艾尔默很失望，生气地说：“好吧，我也知道是牛市，可是你还是卖了吧，在跌落的时候再买回来，不是就可以降低成本了吗？”

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老火鸡很无奈地说：“小伙子啊，我现在要是卖掉，就会失去我的头寸，我以后怎么办？”

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艾尔默挥了一下手，摇着头走向我，很关心地悄悄问：“你听清了没？”他用演戏般的语气低声问我，“我问你。”

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我没说话，他又接着说：“我对他讲了克莱曼公司的内幕消息，他买了500股，赚了7个点，我现在让他卖掉，等股价跌的时候再买回来。他怎么回答我的？他说卖掉就没活可干了，你明白这话吗？”

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老火鸡插话道：“请你原谅，哈伍德先生，我没说没活可干了，我说的是就会失去我的头寸。等你到我这把年纪的时候，千锤百炼过了，就会知道失去头寸是任何人都承受不起的，连洛克菲勒都承受不起。我期盼这只股票回调，好让你能用低价买回来你的那些股票。可我只能根据自己多年的经验进行交易，我为这些经验付过昂贵的学费，不想再重蹈覆辙。我仍然像已经赚钱了一样地感激你。你知道的，这是牛市。”老火鸡说完走了，留下艾尔默一脸纳闷。

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那时候我对帕特里奇的话没多大感觉。想到以前股市好的时候，经常没赚到该赚的钱，我猛然意识到帕特里奇那些话中的道理，越想越觉得他很聪明。他年轻时也做过傻事，必定明白自己的人性弱点。过去的惨痛让他学会了不再受诱惑，因为要付出很大的代价，对于我也是一样。

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帕特里奇最后总要对其他人说：“嗯，你懂的，这是牛市。”其实他的言外之意是，要赚钱就得看整个股市行情，而不是单个股价波动。也就是说，不能光看交易所的报价器上的数字，要研究整个股市行情和走向。明白了这个，我就觉得自己又长进了不少。

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在华尔街闯荡这么多年，输输赢赢了几百万美元，我想告诉你一点：我能赚那么多钱，跟我的想法没什么关系，重要的是我能够坚持不动，懂了吗？是我坚持不动啊。能判断出股价走势不算什么本事。在牛市，有很多早早就做多的投资人，在熊市也有很多早早就做空的投资人。我认识很多看盘的厉害角色，他们也能瞅准最佳时间买卖股票，他们的经验跟我也差不离。可是呢，他们却没赚到多少钱。能够同时判断准确又坚持不动的人并不多，我觉得这才是最难学习的地方。股民们只有彻底理解了这点，才会赚大钱。搞懂了怎么样去交易而赚几百万，比不懂交易时赚几百美元还容易。

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因为能把股市走向看得很明白的股民在看到股市行情跟他们预估的一样时，总会表现得焦虑不安，就是这样。华尔街的很多投资人都不是傻蛋，但是最终还是赔了，道理就在这里。不是股市让他们损兵折将，而恰恰是他们战胜不了自己。他们的聪明不能保证他们会坚持不动。老火鸡恰恰在这方面做得很好，他是那样说的，也是那样做的，他有坚持的勇气，也有坚忍的耐力。

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不理会股市大的波动，光想着抢进抢出，是我的病灶所在。没人能够抓住所有的波动，在牛市，你要做的就是买进和攥在手里，坚持到你相信涨势快停的时候。想做到这一点，必须要搞清楚整体形势，并非只抓内幕消息和影响个股的特殊因素。你要忘掉你所有的股票，永远忘掉！一直到股市逆转，新一轮的走势就要到了为止。你必须要让你的头脑和观察判断能力发挥作用，不然我告诉你的这些就像低买高卖一样无意义。谁都该学会不要试图最后一刻卖出或第一时间买进，这两个时段太贵了，它们让很多股友的千百万美元葬送在了股海里，这些钱多到能建造一条横跨美洲的公路了。

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我分析了一下在富勒顿公司的炒股情况，发现我一开始的那些交易大都赚了钱，这样自然使我决定一开始就玩大的。这让我对自己的判断很有信心，但是有很多次，我都被别人的建议甚至自己的不耐烦破坏掉了。一个人如果没有自信，就不会在这一行干出多少成绩来。我总结的经验是，全面研究行情，坚守住头寸。我耐心安分地坚持着，遇到了挫折也不慌乱，我明白这些都会过去。我一度放空过10万股，看出大反弹即将来临，这种反弹是不可避免的，甚至是健全的，在我的账面利润上会造成100万美元的差别，我预估到了这个结果，但是我还是纹丝不动，让一半的账面利润溜走，我根本没想着去把卖空的股票买回来，等到股价涨高了再抛掉。因为假如我那样做的话，可能会失掉头寸，从而失去确定赚大钱的机会。只有大的波动才能够赚大钱。

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若说我学会这些花的时间太长，那是因为这些都来自我从失败中总结的经验。从失败到了解失败，这期间需要花很多时间；从了解失败到正确判定失败，这中间花费的时间更多。但同时，我干得还不错。我年龄还小，一切都还来得及。我赚钱的方式仍然有一部分还是靠研究那些股票记录单，因为这个方法适合当时的股市状况。我也不像更早一些时候那样经常赔钱，也不会赔得那么生气。回想一下，在一年多时间里，我破产了三次，所以没什么值得我骄傲的。我告诉你，破产是很好的教育机构。

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我的资金并没有增加得很快，因为我一直尽量享受生活。其实我并没有有意识地阻止自己去享受我这个岁数和级别的人该有的生活，我有自己的轿车，能够从股市赚钱的时候，让自己的生活太拮据没什么意思。只有在周日和公休日，股市才不会开盘，情形本来就是如此。当我知道自己哪里出错的时候，我就会给自己新设置一条不该触碰的红线。享受我不断增长的财富的最好办法，就是不要削减生活开支。我当然有一些有趣的经验，其中一些并非这么有趣，但是如果我全部说出来一定说不完。事实上，那些在炒股中很重要的教训也很容易让我记忆犹新，正是这些教训督促着我对市场和自己更加了解。

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THE average ticker hound—or，as they used to call him，tape-worm—goes wrong，I suspect，as much from as from anything else．It means a highly expensive inelasticity．After all，the game of speculation isn’t all mathematics or set rules，however rigid the main laws may be．Even in my tape reading something enters that is more than mere arithmetic．There is what I call the behavior of a stock，actions that enable you to judge whether or not it is going to proceed in accordance with the precedents that your observation has noted．If a stock doesn’t act right don’t touch it；because，being unable to tell precisely what is wrong，you cannot tell which way it is going．No diagnosis，no prognosis．No prognosis，no profit．

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It is a very old thing，this of noting the behavior of a stock and studying its past performances．When I first came to New York there was a broker’s office where a Frenchman used to talk about his chart．At first I thought he was a sort of pet freak kept by the firm because they were good-natured．Then I learned that he was a persuasive and most impressive talker．He said that the only thing that didn’t lie because it simply couldn’t was mathematics．By means of his curves he could forecast market movements．Also he could analyse them，and tell，for instance，why Keene did the right thing in his famous Atchison preferred bull manipulation，and later why he went wrong in his Southern Pacific pool．At various times one or another of the professional traders tried the Frenchman’s system—and then went back to their old unscientific methods of making a living．Their hit-or-miss system was cheaper，they said．I heard that the Frenchman said Keene admitted that the chart was 100 per cent right but claimed that the method was too slow for practical use in an active market．

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Then there was one office where a chart of the daily movement of prices was kept．It showed at a glance just what each stock had done for months．By comparing individual curves with the general market curve and keeping in mind certain rules the customers could tell whether the stock on which they got an unscientific tip to buy was fairly entitled to a rise．They used the chart as a sort of complementary tipster．Today there are scores of commission houses when you find trading charts．They come ready-made from the offices of statistical experts and include not only stocks but also commodities．

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“I should say that a chart helps those who can read it or rather who can assimilate what they read．The average chart reader，however，is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and peaks and primary and secondary movements are all there is to stock speculation．If he pushes his confidence to its logical limit he is bound to go broke．There is an extremely able man，a former partner of a well-known Stock Exchange house，who is really a trained mathematician．He is a graduate of a famous technical school．He devised charts based upon a very careful and minute study of the behavior of prices in many markets—stocks，bonds，grain，cotton，money，and so on．He went back years and years and traced the correlations and seasonal movements—oh，everything．He used his charts in his stock trading for years．What he really did was to take advantage of some highly intelligent averaging．They tell me he won regularly—until the World War knocked all precedents into a cocked hat．I heard that he and his large following lost millions before they desisted．But not even a world war can keep the stock market from being a bull market when conditions are bullish，or a bear market when conditions are bearish．And all a man needs to know to make money is to appraise conditions．

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I didn’t mean to get off the track like that，but I can’t help it when I think of my first few years in Wall Street．I know now what I did not know then，and I think of the mistakes of my ignorance because those are the very mistakes that the average stock speculator makes year in and year out．

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After I got back to New York to try for the third time to beat the market in a Stock Exchange house I traded quite actively．I didn’t expect to do as well as I did in the bucket shops，but I thought that after a while I would do much better because I would be able to swing a much heavier line．Yet，I can see now that my main trouble was my failure to grasp the vital difference between stock gambling and stock speculation．Still，by reason of my seven years’ experience in reading the tape and a certain natural aptitude for the game，my stake was earning not indeed a fortune but a very high rate of interest．I won and lost as before，but I was winning on balance．The more I made the more I spent．This is the usual experience with most men．No，not necessarily with easy-money pickers，but with every human being who is not a slave of the hoarding instinct．Some men，like old Russell Sage，have the money-making and the money-hoarding instinct equally well developed，and of course they die disgustingly rich．

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The game of beating the market exclusively interested me from ten to three every day，and after three，the game of living my life．Don’t misunderstand me．I never allowed pleasure to interfere with business．When I lost it was because I was wrong and not because I was suffering from dissipation or excesses．There never were any shattered nerves or rum-shaken limbs to spoil my game．I couldn’t afford anything that kept me from feeling physically and mentally fit．Even now I am usually in bed by ten．As a young man I never kept late hours，because I could not do business properly on insufficient sleep．I was doing better than breaking even and that is why I didn’t think there was any need to deprive myself of the good things of life．The market was always there to supply them．I was acquiring the confidence that comes to a man from a professionally dispassionate attitude toward his own method of providing bread and butter for himself．

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The first change I made in my play was in the matter of time．I couldn’t wait for the sure thing to come along and then take a point or two out of it as I could in the bucket shops．I had to start much earlier if I wanted to catch the move in Fullerton’s office．In other words，I had to study what was going to happen；to anticipate stock movements．That sounds asininely commonplace，but you know what I mean．It was the change in my own attitude toward the game that was of supreme importance to me．It taught me，little by little，the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines，between gambling and speculating．

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I had to go further back than an hour in my studies of the market—which was something I never would have learned to do in the biggest bucket shop in the world．I interested myself in trade reports and railroad earnings and financial and commercial statistic．Of course I loved to trade heavily and they called me the Boy Plunger；but I also liked to study the moves．I never thought that anything was irksome if it helped me to trade more intelligently．Before I can solve a problem I must state it to myself．When I think I have found the solution I must prove I am right．I know of only one way to prove it；and that is，with my own money．

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Slow as my progress seems now，I suppose I learned as fast as I possibly could，considering that I was making money on balance．If I had lost oftener perhaps it might have spurred me to more continuous study．I certainly would have had more mistakes to spot．But I am not sure of the exact value of losing，for if I had lost more I would have lacked the money to test out the improvements in my methods of trading．

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Studying my winning plays in Fullerton’s office I discovered that although I often was 100 per cent right on the market—that is，in my diagnosis of conditions and general trend—I was not making as much money as my market“rightness”entitled me to．Why wasn’t I？

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There was as much to learn from partial victory as from defeat．

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For instance，I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market，and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks．An advance followed，as I had clearly foreseen．So far，all very well．But what else did I do？Why，I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness．I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully，conservatively．Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions．And that is precisely what I did，or rather what I tried to do；for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came．And I saw my stock go kiting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket．They say you never grow poor taking profits．No，you don’t．But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market．

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Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand．That was what my conservatism did for me．About the time I discovered what a small percentage of what I should have made I was getting I discovered something else，and that is that suckers differ among themselves according to the degree of experience．

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The tyro knows nothing，and everybody，including himself，knows it．But the next，or second，grade thinks he knows a great deal and makes others feel that way too．He is the experienced sucker，who has studied—not the market itself but a few remarks about the market made by a still higher grade of suckers．The second-grade sucker knows how to keep from losing his money in some of the ways that get the raw beginner．It is this semisucker rather than the 100 per cent article who is the real all-the-year-round support of the commission houses．He lasts about three and a half years on an average，as compared with a single season of from three to thirty weeks—which is the usual Wall Street life of a first offender．It is naturally the semisucker who is always quoting the famous trading aphorisms and the various rules of the game．He knows all the don’ts that ever fell from the oracular lips of the old stagers—excepting the principal one，which is：Don’t be a sucker！

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This semisucker is the type that thinks he has cut his wisdom teeth because he loves to buy on declines．He waits for them．He measures his bargains by the number of points it has sold off from the top．In big bull markets the plain unadulterated sucker，utterly ignorant of rules and precedents，buys blindly because he hopes blindly．He makes most of the money—until one of the healthy reactions takes it away from him at one fell swoop．But the Careful Mike sucker does what I did when I thought I was playing the game intelligently—according to the intelligence of others．I knew I needed to change my bucket-shop methods and I thought I was solving my problem with any change，particularly one that assayed high gold values according to the experienced traders among the customers．

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Most—let us call’em customers—are alike．You find very few who can truthfully say that Wall Street doesn’t owe them money．In Fullerton’s there were the usual crowd．All grades！Well，there was one old chap who was not like the others．To begin with，he was a much older man．Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings．He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others．He did not seem very keen to get tips—that is，he never asked the talkers what they’d heard or what they knew．But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely．Sometimes he thanked the tipster again—when the tip turned out O．K．But if it went wrong he never whined，so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by．It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line．But he wasn’t donating much to the firm in the way of commissions；at least not that anyone could see．His name was Partridge，but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back，because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms，with the point of his chin resting on his breast．

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The customers，who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others，used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock．They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do．But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell，the old chap’s answer was always the same．

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The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask：“What do you think I ought to do？”

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Old Turkey would cock his head to one side，contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile，and finally he would say very impressively，“You know，it’s a bull market！”

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Time and again I heard him say，“Well，this is a bull market，you know！”as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy．And of course I did not get his meaning．

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One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office，wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk．Then he rushed over to where Mr．Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning’s story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out．It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe，but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it．

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Well，Elmer made for the old man and，without a word of apology to John Fanning，told Turkey，“Mr．Partridge，I have just sold my Climax Motors．My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper．So you’d better do likewise．That is，if you’ve still got yours．”

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Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy．The amateur，or gratuitous，tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul，even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out．

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“Yes，Mr．Harwood，I still have it．Of course！”said Turkey gratefully．It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap．

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“Well，now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip，”said Elmer，as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man．Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary’s face Elmer went on：“I have just sold every share I owned！”

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From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares．

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But Mr．Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined，“No！No！I can’t do that！”

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“What？”yelled Elmer．

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“I simply can’t！”said Mr．Partridge．He was in great trouble．

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“Didn’t I give you the tip to buy it？”

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“You did，Mr．Harwood，and I am very grateful to you．Indeed，I am，sir．But—”

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“Hold on！Let me talk！And didn’t that stock go up seven points in ten days？Didn’t it？”

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“It did，and I am much obliged to you，my dear boy．But I couldn’t think of selling that stock．”

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“You couldn’t？”asked Elmer，beginning to look doubtful himself．It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers．

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“No，I couldn’t．”

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“Why not？”And Elmer drew nearer．

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“Why，this is a bull market！”The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation．

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“That’s all right，”said Elmer，looking angry because of his disappointment．“I know this is a bull market as well as you do．But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction．You might as well reduce the cost to yourself．”

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“My dear boy，”said old Partridge，in great distress—“my dear boy，if I sold that stock now I’d lose my position；and then where would I be？”

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Elmer Harwood threw up his hands，shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy：“Can you beat it？”he asked me in a stage whisper．“I ask you！”

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I didn’t say anything．So he went on：“I give him a tip on Climax Motors．He buys five hundred shares．He’s got seven points’ profit and I advise him to get out and buy ’em back on the reaction that’s overdue even now．And what does he say when I tell him？He says that if he sells he’ll lose his job．What do you know about that？”

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“I beg your pardon，Mr．Harwood；I didn’t say I’d lose my job，”cut in old Turkey．“I said I’d lose my position．And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have，you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford；not even John D．Rockefeller．I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession，sir．But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years．I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee．But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank．It’s a bull market，you know．”And he strutted away，leaving Elmer dazed．

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What old Mr．Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market．The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was．He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses．He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him，as it was to me．

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I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr．Partridge kept on telling the other customers，“Well，you know this is a bull market！”he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements—that is，not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend．

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And right here let me say one thing：After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this：It never was my thinking that made the big money for me．It always was my sitting．Got that？My sitting tight！It is no trick at all to be right on the market．You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets．I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time，and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit．And their experience invariably matched mine—that is，they made no real money out of it．Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon．I found it one of the hardest things to learn．But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money．It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance．

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The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do．That is why so many men in Wall Street，who are not at all in the sucker class，not even in the third grade，nevertheless lose money．The market does not beat them．They beat themselves，because though they have brains they cannot sit tight．Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did．He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight．

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Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me．Nobody can catch all the fluctuations．In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end．To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks．Then get out of all your stocks；get out for keeps！Wait until you see—or if you prefer，until you think you see—the turn of the market；the beginning of a reversal of general conditions．You have to use your brains and your vision to do this；otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear．One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth—or the first．These two are the most expensive eighths in the world．They have cost stock traders，in the aggregate，enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent．

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Another thing I noticed in studying my plays in Fullerton’s office after I began to trade less unintelligently was that my initial operations seldom showed me a loss．That naturally made me decide to start big．It gave me confidence in my own judgment before I allowed it to be vitiated by the advice of others or even by my own impatience at times．Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game．That is about all I have learned—to study general conditions，to take a position and stick to it．I can wait without a twinge of impatience．I can see a setback without being shaken，knowing that it is only temporary．I have been short one hundred thousand shares and I have seen a big rally coming．I have figured—and figured correctly—that such a rally as I felt was inevitable，and even wholesome，would make a difference of one million dollars in my paper profits．And I nevertheless have stood pat and seen half my paper profit wiped out，without once considering the advisability of covering my shorts to put them out again on the rally．I knew that if I did I might lose my position and with it the certainty of a big killing．It is the big swing that makes the big money for you．

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If I learned all this so slowly it was because I learned by my mistakes，and some time always elapses between making a mistake and realizing it，and more time between realizing it and exactly determining it．But at the same time I was faring pretty comfortably and was very young，so that I made up in other ways．Most of my winnings were still made in part through my tape reading because the kind of markets we were having lent themselves fairly well to my method．I was not losing either as often or as irritatingly as in the beginning of my New York experiences．It wasn’t anything to be proud of，when you think that I had been broke three times in less than two years．And as I told you，being broke is a very efficient educational agency．

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I was not increasing my stake very fast because I lived up to the handle all the time．I did not deprive myself of many of the things that a fellow of my age and tastes would want．I had my own automobile and I could not see any sense in skimping on living when I was taking it out of the market．The ticker only stopped Sundays and holidays，which was as it should be．Every time I found the reason for a loss or the why and how of another mistake，I added a brand-new Don’t！to my schedule of assets．And the nicest way to capitalize my increasing assets was by not cutting down on my living expenses．Of course I had some amusing experiences and some that were not so amusing，but if I told them all in detail I’d never finish．As a matter of fact，the only incidents that I remember without special effort are those that taught me something of definite value to me in my trading；something that added to my store of knowledge of the game—and of myself！

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序号 英文/音标 中文解释 更多操作

prognosis

[prɒɡ'nəʊsɪs]

n.预断病情;预后;预测

cent

[sent]

n.分

appraise

[ə'preɪz]

vt.评价;估价;鉴定

speculator

['spekjuleɪtə(r)]

n.投机者;投机商人;思索家

disgusting

[dɪs'ɡʌstɪŋ]

adj.令人厌恶的

dispassionate

[dɪs'pæʃənət]

adj.冷静的;不带感情的;平心静气的

gamble

['ɡæmbl]

v.赌博;冒险;孤注一掷

irksome

['ɜːksəm]

adj.厌恶的;讨厌的;令人厌烦的

spur

[spɜː(r)]

n.支脉;刺激;马刺;鞭策

rightness

[raɪtnəs]

n.正确性;正义性

impetuous

[ɪm'petʃuəs]

adj.冲动的;猛烈的;轻率的

sucker

['sʌkə(r)]

n.傻瓜;吸盘;吸管;棒棒糖

trader

['treɪdə(r)]

n.商人;商船

strut

[strʌt]

n.高视阔步;支柱

Partridge

['pɑːtrɪdʒ]

n.鹧鸪

perplexity

[pə'pleksəti]

n.困惑;使人困惑的事物

fatherly

['fɑːðəli]

adj.父亲的;父亲般的;慈爱的

talisman

['tælɪzmən]

n.避邪物;护身符

sympathetically

[ˌsɪmpə'θetɪklɪ]

adv.同情地;表示好感地

Climax

['klaɪmæks]

n.高潮;极点;层进法;【生】顶极群落;巅峰，最高峰

tipster

['tɪpstə(r)]

n.(提供赛马或股票等投机消息的)情报贩子;密报者

chap

[tʃæp]

vt. 使(皮肤)裂口，裂开；变粗糙;

enthusiastic

[ɪnˌθjuːzi'æstɪk]

adj.热心的;热情的;热烈的

estimative

['estɪmət]

被估计的；有估计能力的

whine

[waɪn]

n.闹声;抱怨;牢骚

oblige

[ə'blaɪdʒ]

vt.迫使;责成;使感激;施恩于;帮 ... 的忙;使…成为必要

taker

['teɪkə(r)]

n.接受者;收受者;取者

distress

[dɪ'stres]

n.不幸;危难;苦恼;痛苦

overdue

[ˌəʊvə'djuː]

adj.过期的;未兑的;迟到的

daze

[deɪz]

vt. 使 ... 茫然; 使 ... 眩目

ignorance

['ɪɡnərəns]

n.无知;愚昧

aggregate

['æɡrɪɡət]

adj.合计的;总的

advisability

[ədˌvaɪzə'bɪləti]

n.可劝告;适当

York

[jɔːk]

约克郡;〈板球〉使击球员出局

capitalize

['kæpɪtəlaɪz]

vt.以大写字母写;使 ... 资本化;估价

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