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股票大作手回忆录|Memoirs of Stock Makers

第六章|Chapter VI

属类： 双语小说 【分类】其他读物 -[作者: 爱德温-勒菲弗] 阅读：[9598]
主要讲述了利弗莫尔的一生，不但用鲜活的笔触，复原了他充满激情的生活历程，更从专业的角度，详细介绍了利弗莫尔的各种技巧，并用最准确的表述，无限接近了他的思想最深邃处。
自工业化洪流激荡整个社会后，资本市场就以其无限魅力，强劲地席卷更多人参与其中。在过往100年的金钱游戏里，无疑出现许多顶尖高手，但最被后人不能忘怀的非杰西·利弗莫尔莫属。对数字的极端敏感加之惊人的记忆力，使不到20岁的利弗莫尔，就掌握了一套无往不胜的技术方法，最终被以盘剥“肥羊”为生的所有对赌行拒之门外。随即他转战华尔街，历经几次沉浮，炼就了一套辨识市场趋势的“秘诀”。凭着市场趋势这一“最佳搭档”，数度击溃幕后操纵者，成为当之无愧的投机之王
《 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 》
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1906年春，我远离股市，在亚特兰大度了个短假，想换换环境好好休整一下。顺便提一下，我回到了一开始的那个经纪商哈丁兄弟公司。我玩得很活跃，能够操作三四千股，这没比我20岁的时候在柯斯莫斯普利坦公司里玩得大多少，但是在纽约交易所，经纪商替我买卖股票，与在对赌行里赌1点的波动是完全不同的。

1
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你或许记得我提到过一件事，就是在柯斯莫斯普利坦公司时，我放空3500股制糖公司的股票后，感觉不太对头后想马上结束交易的那一次。该怎么说呢，我经常会在冥冥之中有这种奇怪的感觉，我经常会遵照这种感觉行事。可有时我又告诉自己，光靠一时半会儿的冲动就改变自己的头寸是一件蠢事。我把自己的这种感觉归因于抽的雪茄太多，导致睡眠不足，肝脏不太好。每当我克制了自己的这种冲动，坚持我一开始的看法时，又总能找到些后悔的地方。好多回我都自我克制着没有卖出，隔天去看，市场会很强劲，甚至可能上涨，于是我跟自己说遵从感觉卖出多么愚蠢。但是再过一天，股价一定会有大跌。在起起落落的过程中，我明白了要赚钱不一定光靠理智和逻辑头脑，还要靠心理感应。

2
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我说件事，这件事对我影响很大。它发生在1906年我在亚特兰大休假时期。有个同样是哈丁兄弟公司客户的朋友与我同行，那时候假期令人愉悦，我一点儿都不想靠近股市。当然，要是市场特别好，我的头寸又特别大的时候，我是没法停止炒股而去玩耍的。我记得当时是牛市，虽然股市跌了一点儿，不过各种迹象都表明它会上涨，所以人们都信心饱满。

3
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有一天早晨吃过饭后，我读了纽约的所有早报，也看烦了这样的日常场景：海鸥叼着蚌飞到大约6米高的地方，然后把它们丢到硬邦邦的潮湿的沙滩上，美美地吃上一顿。于是我和朋友到木板大道上闲逛，这算是一天里最好玩的事了。

4
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还没到中午，我缓步走在街上，呼吸着咸咸的空气，百无聊赖地消磨着时间。在这里，有个哈丁兄弟公司的分部，我们每天早上都要顺道去看看开盘情况，这成了无聊之人的习惯。

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这次我们发现股市行情很好，交易也很活跃，朋友非常看好此时的市场，他手里有一些在股价很低时买进的股票。他对我说，持股等着价格上涨真是明智的做法。我对他的话并没有太在意，也不屑于与他讨论。我看了看报价板，发现大多数股票都已经上涨，然后看到太平洋铁路公司的股票，我觉得此时应该把它卖掉，也不知道为什么这么想，反正就有这样的感觉。我自问原因，可就是无法回答。

6
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我紧盯着报价板，但是因为一直想着这件事，什么也看不进去，满脑子想的都是要放空太平洋铁路公司的股票，我无法解释为什么会有这样的想法。

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我的神情在别人看来一定很奇怪，站在旁边的朋友碰了我一下，问我：“喂，怎么了？”

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“我也不知道。”我只能这么说。

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“你困了？”

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“没有，”我说，“我没困。”

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我想放空太平洋股票，我总能够靠着这样的感觉获利。

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我直接走向有空白单子的桌位，朋友跟在我后面。我迅速填好要卖掉1000股太平洋铁路股票的单子后，递给经理。一脸笑容的经理看完单子后脸色马上变了。他瞪着我问道：“不会吧？”我没说话，只是望着他。之后，他马上把单子递给了操作员。

13
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朋友问我：“你这是干什么？”

14
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“我要卖掉这只股票。”我说。

15
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“啊？”他大喊了一声。他是多头，而我却要做空，这里面一定有什么问题。

16
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“太平洋铁路的1000股。”我说。

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“为什么呀？”他显得很激动。

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我摇了摇头，没法告诉他原因，可他肯定觉得我捏着内幕消息呢。他拉着我的胳膊把我拽到门外没人的地方，这里也不会有人听到我们说什么。

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“你有什么内幕消息吗？”他问我。

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他很激动，太平洋铁路是他最爱的股票之一，因为这家公司的发展前景很好，他坚信握着不撒手可以赚钱，不过他也愿意听到些负面消息。

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“什么消息也没啊。”我说。

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“怎么可能？”很明显，他怀疑我说谎。

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“真的没什么消息。”

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“那你为什么要卖掉？”

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“我也不清楚。”我的确没说假话。

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“呵呵，算了吧你。”他说。他了解我是个有的放矢的稳当人，可现在却要卖掉1000股太平洋铁路。在市场走势这么好的情况下，我卖出这么多股，一定有充足的理由。

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“我不知道啊。”我说，“我就是觉得会发生些什么。”

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“发生什么？”

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“不知道！我说不明白，我只是想抛掉，我还想再追卖1000股。”

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我再次走回桌子旁边，又卖掉了1000股。如果刚才卖那1000股是对的，我就该多卖掉些。

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“到底会有什么事呀？”朋友不依不饶地问我，他也犹豫起来，在考虑是不是要学我这样。如果我直接对他说获得了这只股票要下跌的内幕消息，他肯定就不会纠缠着问了，连谁说的和为什么这样的白痴问题都不会问，而会直接学我卖掉。

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“什么事都可能有，可我没法保证一定有什么事，我没办法对你说清原因，我又不能预知未来。”我说。

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“你要疯了。”他说，“你这个疯子，没有原因就要卖掉股票，你真的不清楚原因吗？”

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“我真不知道，我就是想卖掉。”我说。想抛股票的感觉来势汹汹，我就又卖了1000股。朋友这下快崩溃了，他抓着我的胳膊说：“听着，我们快离开这里，以免你放空整个股市。”

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我已经卖掉了很多，心里舒服了，所以也就没等后面那2000股的成交单，就直接跟着他离开了。对我来说，即使有最好的理由，放空那么多股已经很多了。没什么理由，尤其股市行情整体不错，没有人会觉得熊市要来，放空那么多似乎更是过分。不过，每次我要是想卖的时候却没有出手，就总会非常后悔。

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我把这样的事情讲给朋友们听，有的人就对我说，那不是莫名的感觉，而是一种潜意识的思维，就是所谓创造性的工作思维。源于这样的思维，艺术家们会做出一些连自己都无法搞清楚的事来。而我，可能是受到很多小因素的联合刺激，这些小因素单个来说毫无意义，集合起来却很有力量。或许朋友那种不靠谱的自信也激发了我否定的精神，所以要选择抛掉太平洋铁路的股票来释放，因为这是一只众所周知会上涨的股票。我没办法对你说清预感的源头，只知道当我从那里出来时就已经卖掉了3000股，而且是在股市上涨的时候，可我根本不担心。

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我想知道后面2000股的成交价格，所以我们吃过午饭后又去了那里。我发现股市的综合行情很好，太平洋的股价也上涨了。

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“你算是赔本了。”朋友说。你都能想象得到他没卖这只股票的得意样儿。

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第二天，股票继续上涨，除了朋友的得意忘形外，我什么信息也没得到，可我一直觉得我没有卖错，我自认没做错的时候就耐心十足，这有什么道理吗？下午，太平洋的股票就停止了上涨，在那天快收盘时，开始下跌，没多久就跌破到我卖3000股时的价格平均线，我更加觉得自己没做错，我自然必须多放空一些。所以在那天收市之前，我又卖掉了2000股。

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就等于说，靠着这种预感，我抛售了太平洋铁路公司的5000股，花完了我在哈丁兄弟公司分部的保证金。度假的时候，我没办法全力应对放空这么多股票的现状，只好放弃了假期，当天晚上就回了纽约。谁都不知道会出什么事，我想我还是回到现场，在更熟悉一点儿的纽约，我能更迅速地应对。

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第二天，我们得到了旧金山发生大地震的消息，不过股市开盘只跌了几个点而已，多头很强势，人们不会独立对消息做出反应，这很常见。一旦处于很坚实的牛市，无论是否有报纸所说的多头炒作在进行，某些消息传出时，总是不会像华尔街偏空时那样发挥应有的效果。一切都看当时的人气而定。在这个例子里，华尔街股市没有对地震因素做出评估，因为大家不愿意这样做。在那天结束之前，股价还上涨了些。

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我卖掉了5000股，灾难发生了，我的股票却没有下跌。我自信感觉没错，只是我还没挣到钱，连一点儿小利润都没有。与我同去亚特兰大度假的朋友在我卖掉股票时又庆幸又惋惜。他对我说：“预感是存在的，哥们儿，不过当钱和人都倾向于多头时，对抗不管用，他们肯定赢。”

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“再等等看。”我说的是股价，我不想逃避，我知道事情比较严峻，太平洋公司的损失是最严重的，可是华尔街却表现得很盲目，真气人。

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“等等看？等着你这张皮和其他熊皮都被暴晒在太阳底下，晒成个干皮。”他直截了当地说。

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“你会怎么办？”我问，“凭着南太平洋公司和其他铁路公司蒸发了几百万就买太平洋的股票？他们付清损失后下一年的分红从哪里来？你最多觉得问题还不算严重，可就因为这个就买受到严重损失的铁路股票吗？你说啊。”

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可朋友只是说：“对，好像有道理，可我告诉你，股市不会与你想的一样，行情记录不会骗人，是吧？”

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我说：“行情记录总是滞后，不够及时啊。”

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“听我说。在黑色星期五之前，有人和吉姆·菲斯克聊天，举出至少十个金价要下跌的理由。他受自己的话鼓舞，最后对菲斯克说要抛掉几百万的黄金，菲斯克看着他说：‘去吧，赶紧地，卖完了别忘记请我参加你的葬礼哦。’”

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“对啊。”我说，“那人如果真的卖掉了黄金，看能捞多少。你也最好卖掉些太平洋的股票。”

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“那不可能！我是个顺势而为的人，我这样的人能开心赚钱。”

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第二天，出现了更加完善的报道，股市开始下滑了，但是即使到了那个时候，下跌也没预想的那么严重。在我眼里，世界上不存在能阻止股市猛跌的东西，所以我又卖出了5000股。是啊，这时候很多人都知道怎么回事了，我的经纪人也乐意效劳了。这不是谁的错，我预估的股市行情没错。过了一天，股市迅速下跌，我借机又卖出去1万股。这是唯一可以做的事。

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我不想其他，只知道自己没错，绝对正确，这是个绝佳的好机会，只看我怎么来利用。我持续地抛售着。难道我没有想过，万一卖了这么多，要是股市反弹了，我的利润就会打了水漂，甚至连本钱都丧失掉吗？谁知道我想过没有，就算想过也不会有什么压力，我不是个鲁莽的赌徒，而是很小心谨慎的，谁都不能把地震造成的损失补回来，不是吗？谁也不能在一个晚上就免费把坍塌的高楼复原，不是吗？

53
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我没有鲁莽，没有发疯，也没有被胜利冲昏头脑，更不会觉得一大部分旧金山在地图上消失了，一个城市成了废墟，是的，一点儿都没错。我没有把心思花在等着恐慌发生上，好吧，第二天我就平仓，赚了25万美金，这是我炒股以来获利最多的一次，而且就这么几天时间。刚开始时，华尔街一点儿都不理会地震的影响，他们还说一开始的那些报道没多严重。可我想说的是，要想转变公众对待股市的看法，得需要很长时间，就连职业股民在大部分时间里都是迟缓而短视的。

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我没什么需要解释的，不管科学还是戏说。我只是对你讲讲我是怎么做的，为什么要这样做，最后获得了什么。我注重的不是那个神奇的预感，而是我获利25万的事情。这件事情说明，只要给我机会，我就可以做得更大。

55
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那年夏天，我到了萨拉托加温泉度假，可总想着要看看股市。起初没多累，想想股市也不烦躁，而且我在这里认识的人都对炒股兴趣很大，我们顺理成章地就讨论上了。我觉得说和做之间有很大区别，有的人会让你想到那种像对待懦夫一样跟脾气暴躁的老板谈话的大胆的职员——确实让你有这种感觉，他们只懂得嘴上那一套。

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哈丁兄弟公司在萨拉托加也有分部，而且客户还不少，真正的原因是做了广告。实际上在偏远的地方开设分部这件事本身就是打广告，我也总会顺道去转转，坐在人堆边上瞅瞅。那里的经理是从纽约总部过来的，很和善，对朋友和陌生人都会热心帮忙，也会借机拉一些业务。这里是内幕消息充斥的地方——赌马的、股票的、跑堂的——哪方面的消息都有，分部的人很清楚我对这些没兴趣，经理也不会向我悄悄透露他从纽约获得什么秘密。他只是把电报拿给我看，并说：“这是他们刚刚发的。”只有这样。

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我自然要盯着股市，对我而言，看报价板和研究判断各种迹象是一种程序。我看到我的老伙计太平洋铁路的股票又上涨了，而且还比较高，有人在买进，我观察了两天还是没有买。我能肯定有个大客户在买进，他肯定是个有大量资金而且知道怎么操作的高手，我觉得他很聪明。

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我确定了这点后，立刻以160美元左右的价格大力买进。这只股票继续表现良好，所以我继续买进，每次成交500股，我买得越多，股市越强劲，却没有急速冲刺，我很满意，我知道这只股票没有理由不猛涨。

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经理忽然走到我跟前，他说纽约发电报了，问我在不在这里。得到答复后，有人过来说，让我等会儿，哈丁先生要跟我通话。

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我说没问题，就又趁机买了太平洋的500多股，我不知道哈丁先生要对我说什么，估计不是关于炒股的事情，因为我有足够的保证金来玩。经理很快就来对我说，艾德·哈丁先生打长途电话找我。

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我说：“你好，艾德。”

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可是却听到他说：“你到底在干吗？你疯了呀？”

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“是你疯了吧？”我说。

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“你到底要干什么？”他又问。

65
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“你这是什么意思？”

66
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“你买那么多那只股票干什么？”

67
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“怎么了？我的保证金不够吗？”

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“与保证金无关，是让你别这么蠢。”

69
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“我不知道你在说什么。”

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“你买太平洋的股票干吗？”

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“因为它在上涨啊。”我说。

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“上涨个鬼啊！你难道不知道内部人士正在倒货给你吗？你大概是最好欺骗的人了，还不如去赌马呢，赔得还有劲儿。你别让他们给耍了。”

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“没人耍我。”我对他说，“我没告诉过任何人。”

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他继续说：“你不要以为每次掉进去都会发生奇迹，你有机会就快退出来。那些大户们都使劲儿往外卖呢，你还这样买，简直是胡闹。”

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“从记录上看，是有人在买进啊。”我一根筋地说。

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“你啊，你的单子过来的时候我都快犯心脏病了，别傻了，赶快退出来吧，说崩盘就崩盘了，我言尽于此，再见。”说完他挂了电话。

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哈丁很聪明，消息也非常灵通，没有什么坏心眼儿，是个能做朋友的人，而且他所在的位置可以帮助他获取很多内幕。我买进太平洋的股票，靠的是这么多年对股票走势的研究，以及我所看到的一些蛛丝马迹，以经验来看，有迹象表明股价会大幅上涨。我不知道自己看出了什么变化，但是我猜想。我一定断定：我认定股票被人买进，完全是因为有内线在捣鬼。可能哈丁的话对我起了很大作用，他要制止我不能犯这么一个赔上老本的错，不管是他的能力还是动机，都是值得信任的。所以我听了他的话，我也不知道为什么要这么听他的话。

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我抛空了太平洋的股票，不能做多头的时候当然要做空头，不然就是个蠢货。所以我卖掉了那些股票后又抛了4000股，差不多都是以162美元的价格。

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隔天太平洋公司董事宣布要配股一成。一开始华尔街上没人相信这个消息。报纸开始抨击这家公司董事会，就在华尔街的高手们不知所措、犹豫不决时，市场沸腾了起来，一些在场的股民在一个小时内就赚了不少。我甚至听说有个笨蛋不小心买错股票，结果却赚了35万，第二周就卖掉了他在交易所的席位，去做农场主了。

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我听到配股一成的消息后，就发觉我是活该倒霉，不听经验的指挥，却偏信内幕消息，结果受了这么大损失。我仅凭一个头脑清醒的朋友没有私心的劝告，就对他的警告深信不疑，从而失掉了自己的原则。

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当看到太平洋股票创造了纪录后，我就对自己说：“真不该卖掉这只股票啊。”

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我现在只剩下哈丁兄弟公司分部的保证金了，这让我没有高兴或者不高兴，显然我对股市行情的判断是对的，但却愚蠢地听从了哈丁先生的话。事后说别人是不对的，而且我也不能再浪费时间，既然木已成舟，我就只能下单补空头。我按照每股大概165美元的价格买了太平洋的4000股，也就损失了3个点。在收盘之前，经纪人以172美元和174美元的股价买了一部分。我拿到单子后算了一下，因为哈丁先生的好心干扰，我赔了4万美元，这次教训还不算贵，对一个连坚持自己做法的勇气都没有的人来说，这是个小代价。

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我不太懊恼，按照行情记录来看，股价还会上涨，这是罕有的波动，董事会做出的决定也是亘古未有，不过这次我要遵照自己的想法来做，我平了4000股的空头，准备根据股市的行情记录玩一把，赚点钱。所以我毫无顾虑地买了4000股，第二天早上时，我卖掉了它们，这不光让我赚回了赔掉的4万美元，还净赚了1.5万。如果不是哈丁那么替我着想，我一下子就能赚很大一笔，但他也算帮了我一把，这是个教训，我相信这次事件把我锻造成了一个真正的股市商人。

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我并不是说我所要学习的只是不去受内幕消息摆布，坚守自己的原则，而是我真正找到了自信，从根本上与以前炒股的老方法划清了界限。萨拉托加的这次经历是我最后一次依靠冒险和运气赚钱，自此以后，我就开始全盘考虑股市，而不只是单独地拘泥于个别股票。通过努力学习，我终于让自己在这个行业里达到了更高的层次，这一步走得的确漫长而艰辛。

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IN the spring of 1906 I was in Atlantic City for a short vacation．I was out of stocks and was thinking only of having a change of air and a nice rest．By the way，I had gone back to my first brokers，Harding Brothers，and my account had got to be pretty active．I could swing three or four thousand shares．That wasn’t much more than I had done in the old Cosmopolitan shop when I was barely twenty years of age．But there was some difference between my one-point margin in the bucket shop and the margin required by brokers who actually bought or sold stocks for my account on the New York Stock Exchange．

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You may remember the story I told you about that time when I was short thirty-five hundred Sugar in the Cosmopolitan and I had a hunch something was wrong and I’d better close the trade？Well，I have often had that curious feeling．As a rule，I yield to it．But at times I have pooh-poohed the idea and have told myself that it was simply asinine to follow any of these sudden blind impulses to reverse my position．I have ascribed my hunch to a state of nerves resulting from too many cigars or insufficient sleep or a torpid liver or something of that kind．When I have argued myself into disregarding my impulse and have stood pat I have always had cause to regret it．A dozen instances occur to me when I did not sell as per hunch，and the next day I’d go downtown and the market would be strong，or perhaps even advance，and I’d tell myself how silly it would have been to obey the blind impulse to sell．But on the following day there would be a pretty bad drop．Something had broken loose somewhere and I’d have made money by not being so wise and logical．The reason plainly was not physiological but psychological．

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I want to tell you only about one of them because of what it did for me．It happened when I was having that little vacation in Atlantic City in the spring of 1906．I had a friend with me who also was a customer of Harding Brothers．I had no interest in the market one way or another and was enjoying my rest．I can always give up trading to play，unless of course it is an exceptionally active market in which my commitments are rather heavy．It was a bull market，as I remember it．The outlook was favorable for general business and the stock market had slowed down but the tone was firm and all indications pointed to higher prices．

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One morning after we had breakfasted and had finished reading all the New York morning papers，and had got tired of watching the sea gulls picking up clams and flying up with them twenty feet in the air and dropping them on the hard wet sand to open them for their breakfast，my friend and I started up the Boardwalk．That was the most exciting thing we did in the daytime．

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It was not noon yet，and we walked up slowly to kill time and breathe the salt air．Harding Brothers had a branch office on the Boardwalk and we used to drop in every morning and see how they’d opened．It was more force of habit than anything else，for I wasn’t doing anything．

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The market，we found，was strong and active．My friend，who was quite bullish，was carrying a moderate line purchased several points lower．He began to tell me what an obviously wise thing it was to hold stocks for much higher prices．I wasn’t paying enough attention to him to take the trouble to agree with him．I was looking over the quotation board，noting the changes—they were mostly advances—until I came to Union Pacific．I got a feeling that I ought to sell it．I can’t tell you more．I just felt like selling it．I asked myself why I should feel like that，and I couldn’t find any reason whatever for going short of UP．

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I stared at the last price on the board until I couldn’t see any figures or any board or anything else，for that matter．All I knew was that I wanted to sell Union Pacific and I couldn’t find out why I wanted to．

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I must have looked queer，for my friend，who was standing alongside of me，suddenly nudged me and asked，“Hey，what’s the matter？”

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“I don’t know，”I answered．

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“Going to sleep？”he said．

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“No，”I said．“I am not going to sleep．What I am going to do is to sell that stock．”I had always made money following my hunches．

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I walked over to a table where there were some blank order pads．My friend followed me．I wrote out an order to sell a thousand Union Pacific at the market and handed it to the manager．He was smiling when I wrote it and when he took it．But when he read the order he stopped smiling and looked at me．

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“Is this right？”he asked me．But I just looked at him and he rushed it over to the operator．

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“What are you doing？”asked my friend．

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“I’m selling it！”I told him．

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“Selling what？”he yelled at me．If he was a bull how could I be a bear？Something was wrong．

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“A thousand UP，”I said．

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“Why？”he asked me in great excitement．

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I shook my head，meaning I had no reason．But he must have thought I’d got a tip，because he took me by the arm and led me outside into the hall，where we could be out of sight and hearing of the other customers and rubbering chairwarmers．

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“What did you bear？”he asked me．

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He was quite excited．UP．was one of his pets and he was bullish on it because of its earnings and its prospects．But he was willing to take a bear tip on it at second hand．

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“Nothing ！”I said．

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“You didn’t？”He was skeptical and showed it plainly．

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“I didn’t hear a thing．”

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“Then why in blazes are you selling？”

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“I don’t know，”I told him．I spoke gospel truth．

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“Oh，come across，Larry，”he said．

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He knew it was my habit to know why I traded．I had sold a thousand shares of Union Pacific．I must have a very good reason to sell that much stock in the face of the strong market．

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“I don’t know，”I repeated．“I just feel that something is going to happen．”

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“What’s going to happen？”

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“I don’t know．I can’t give you any reason．All I know is that I want to sell that stock．And I’m going to let ’em have another thousand．”

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I walked back into the office and gave an order to sell a second thousand．If I was right in selling the first thousand I ought to have out a little more．

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“What could possibly happen？”persisted my friend，who couldn’t make up his mind to follow my lead．If I’d told him that I had heard UP．was going down he’d have sold it without asking me from whom I’d heard it or why．“What could possibly happen？”he asked again．

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“A million things could happen．But I can’t promise you that any of them will．I can’t give you any reasons and I can’t tell fortunes，”I told him．

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“Then you’re crazy，”he said．“Stark crazy，selling that stock without rime or reason．You don’t know why you want to sell it？”

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“I don’t know why I want to sell it．I only know I do want to，”I said．“I want to，like everything．”The urge was so strong that I sold another thousand．

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That was too much for my friend．He grabbed me by the arm and said，“Here！Let’s get out of this place before you sell the entire capital stock．”

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I had sold as much as I needed to satisfy my feeling，so I followed him without waiting for a report on the last two thousand shares．It was a pretty good jag of stock for me to sell even with the best of reasons．It seemed more than enough to be short of without any reason whatever，particularly when the entire market was so strong and there was nothing in sight to make anybody think of the bear side．But I remembered that on previous occasions when I had the same urge to sell and didn’t do it I always had reasons to regret it．

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I have told some of these stories to friends，and some of them tell me it isn’t a hunch but the subconscious mind，which is the creative mind，at work．That is the mind which makes artists do things without their knowing how they came to do them．Perhaps with me it was the cumulative effect of a lot of little things individually insignificant but collectively powerful．Possibly my friend’s unintelligent bullishness aroused a spirit of contradiction and I picked on UP．because it had been touted so much．I can’t tell you what the cause or motive for hunches may be．All I know is that I went out of the Atlantic City branch office of Harding Brothers short three thousand Union Pacific in a rising market，and I wasn’t worried a bit．

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I wanted to know what price they’d got for my last two thousand shares．So after luncheon we walked up to the office．I had the pleasure of seeing that the general market was strong and Union Pacific higher．

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“I see your finish，”said my friend．You could see he was glad he hadn’t sold any．

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The next day the general market went up some more and I heard nothing but cheerful remarks from my friend．But I felt sure I had done right to sell UP.，and I never get impatient when I feel I am right．What’s the sense？That afternoon Union Pacific stopped climbing，and toward the end of the day it began to go off．Pretty soon it got down to a point below the level of the average of my three thousand shares．I felt more positive than ever that I was on the right side，and since I felt that way I naturally had to sell some more．So，toward the close，I sold an additional two thousand shares．

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There I was，short five thousand shares of UP．on a hunch．That was as much as I could sell in Harding’s office with the margin I had up．It was too much stock for me to be short of，on a vacation；so I gave up the vacation and returned to New York that very night．There was no telling what might happen and I thought I’d better be Johnny-on-the-spot．There I could move quickly if I had to．

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The next day we got the news of the San Francisco earthquake．It was an awful disaster．But the market opened down only a couple of points．The bull forces were at work，and the public never is independently responsive to news．You see that all the time．If there is a solid bull foundation，for instance，whether or not what the papers call bull manipulation is going on at the same time，certain news items fail to have the effect they would have if the Street was bearish．It is all in the state of sentiment at the time．In this case the Street did not appraise the extent of the catastrophe because it didn’t wish to．Before the day was over prices came back．

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I was short five thousand shares．The blow had fallen，but my stock hadn’t．My hunch was of the first water，but my bank account wasn’t growing；not even on paper．The friend who had been in Atlantic City with me when I put out my short line in UP．was glad and sad about it．

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He told me：“That was some hunch，kid．But，say，when the talent and the money are all on the bull side what’s the use of bucking against them？They are bound to win out．”

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“Give them time，”I said．I meant prices．I wouldn’t cover because I knew the damage was enormous and the Union Pacific would be one of the worst sufferers．But it was exasperating to see the blindness of the Street．

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“Give ’em time and your skin will be where all the other bear hides are stretched out in the sun，drying，”he assured me．

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“What would you do？”I asked him．“Buy UP．on the strength of the millions of dollars of damage suffered by the Southern Pacific and other lines？Where are the earnings for dividends going to come from after they pay for all they’ve lost？The best you can say is that the trouble may not be as bad as it is painted．But is that a reason for buying the stocks of the roads chiefly affected？Answer me that．”

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But all my friend said was：“Yes，that listens fine．But I tell you，the market doesn’t agree with you．The tape doesn’t lie，does it？”

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“It doesn’t always tell the truth on the instant，”I said．

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“Listen．A man was talking to Jim Fisk a little before Black Friday，giving ten good reasons why gold ought to go down for keeps．He got so encouraged by his own words that he ended by telling Fisk that he was going to sell a few million．And Jim Fisk just looked at him and said，“Go ahead！Do！Sell it short and invite me to your funeral．’”

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“Yes，”I said；“and if that chap had sold it short，look at the killing he would have made！Sell some UP．yourself．”

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“Not I！I’m the kind that thrives best on not rowing against wind and tide．”

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On the following day，when fuller reports came in，the market began to slide off，but even then not as violently as it should．Knowing that nothing under the sun could stave off a substantial break I doubled up and sold five thousand shares．Oh，by that time it was plain to most people，and my brokers were willing enough．It wasn’t reckless of them or of me，not the way I sized up the market．On the day following，the market began to go for fair．There was the dickens to pay．Of course I pushed my luck for all it was worth．I doubled up again and sold ten thousand shares more．It was the only play possible．

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I wasn’t thinking of anything except that I was right—100 per cent right—and that this was a heaven-sent opportunity．It was up to me to take advantage of it．I sold more．Did I think that with such a big line of shorts out，it wouldn’t take much of a rally to wipe out my paper profits and possibly my principal？I don’t know whether I thought of that or not，but if I did it didn’t carry much weight with me．I wasn’t plunging recklessly．I was really playing conservatively．There was nothing that anybody could do to undo the earthquake，was there？They couldn’t restore the crumpled buildings overnight，free，gratis，for nothing，could they？All the money in the world couldn’t help much in the next few hours，could it？

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I was not betting blindly．I wasn’t a crazy bear．I wasn’t drunk with success or thinking that because Frisco was pretty well wiped off the map the entire country was headed for the scrap heap．No，indeed！I didn’t look for a panic．Well，the next day I cleaned up．I made two hundred and fifty thousand dollars．It was my biggest winnings up to that time．It was all made in a few days．The Street paid no attention to the earthquake the first day or two．They’ll tell you that it was because the first dispatches were not so alarmring，but I think it was because it took so long to change the point of view of the public toward the securities markets．Even the professional traders for the most part were slow and shortsighted．

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I have no explanation to give you，either scientific or childish．I am telling you what I did，and why，and what came of it．I was much less concerned with the mystery of the hunch than with the fact that I got a quarter of a million out of it．It meant that I could now swing a much bigger line than ever，if or when the time came for it．

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That summer I went to Saratoga Springs．It was supposed to be a vacation for me，but I kept an eye on the market．To begin with，I wasn’t so tired that it bothered me to think about it．And then，everybody I knew up there had or had had an active interest in it．We naturally talked about it．I have noticed that there is quite a difference between talking and trading．Some of these chaps remind you of the bold clerk who talks to his cantankerous employer as to a yellow dog—when he tells you about it．

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Harding Brothers had a branch office in Saratoga．Many of their customers were there．But the real reason，I suppose，was the advertising value．Having a branch office in a resort is simply high-class billboard advertising．I used to drop in and sit around with the rest of the crowd．The manager was a very nice chap from the New York office who was there to give the glad hand to friends and strangers and，if possible，to get business．It was a wonderful place for tips—all kinds of tips，horse-race，stock-market，and waiters’．The office knew I didn’t take any，so the manager didn’t come and whisper confidentially in my ear what he’d just got on the q．t．from the New York office．He simply passed over the telegrams，saying，“This is what they’re sending out，”or something of the kind．

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Of course I watched the market．With me，to look at the quotation board and to read the signs is one process．My good friend Union Pacific，I noticed，looked like going up．The price was high，but the stock acted as if it were being accumulated．I watched it a couple of days without trading in it，and the more I watched it the more convinced I became that it was being bought on balance by somebody who was no piker，somebody who not only had a big bank roll but knew what was what．Very clever accumulation，I thought．

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As soon as I was sure of this I naturally began to buy it，at about 160．It kept on acting all hunky，and so I kept on buying it，five hundred shares at a clip．The more I bought the stronger it got，without any spurt，and I was feeling very comfortable．I couldn’t see any reason why that stock shouldn’t go up a great deal more；not with what I read on the tape．

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All of a sudden the manager came to me and said they’d got a message from New York—they had a direct wire of course—asking if I was in the office，and when they answered yes，another came saying：“Keep him there．Tell him Mr．Harding wants to speak to him．”

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I said I’d wait，and bought five hundred shares more of UP．I couldn’t imagine what Harding could have to say to me．I didn’t think it was anything about business．My margin was more than ample for what I was buying．Pretty soon the manager came and told me that Mr．Ed Harding wanted me on the long-distance telephone．

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“Hello，Ed，”I said．

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But he said，“What the devil’s the matter with you？Are you crazy？”

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“Are you？”I said．

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“What are you doing？”he asked．

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“What do you mean？”

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“Buying all that stock．”‘

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“Why，isn’t my margin all right？”

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“It isn’t a case of margin，but of being a plain sucker．”

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“I don’t get you．”

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“Why are you buying all that Union Pacific？”

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“It’s going up，”I said．

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“Going up，hell！Don’t you know that the insiders are feeding it out to you？You’re just about the easiest mark up there．You’d have more fun losing it on the ponies．Don’t let them kid you．”

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“Nobody is kidding me，”I told him．“I haven’t talked to a soul about it．”

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But he came back at me：“You can’t expect a miracle to save you every time you plunge in that stock．Get out while you’ve still got a & chance，”he said．“It’s a crime to be long of that stock at this level—when these highbinders are shoveling it out by the ton．”

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“The tape says they’re buying it，”I insisted．

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“Larry，I got heart disease when your orders began to come in．For the love of Mike，don’t be a sucker．Get out！Right away．It’s liable to bust wide open any minute．I’ve done my duty．Good-by！”And he hung up．

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Ed Harding was a very clever chap，unusually well-informed and a real friend，disinterested and kind-hearted．And what was even more，I knew he was in position to hear things．All I had to go by，in my purchases of UP.，was my years of studying the behaviour of stocks and my perception of certain symptoms which experience had taught me usually accompanied a substantial rise．I don’t know what happened to me，but I suppose I must have concluded that my tape reading told me the stock was being absorbed simply because very clever manipulation by the insiders made the tape tell a story that wasn’t true．Possibly I was impressed by the pains Ed Harding took to stop me from making what he was so sure would be a colossal mistake on my part．Neither his brains nor his motives were to be questioned．Whatever it was that made me decide to follow his advice，I cannot tell you；but follow it，I did．

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I sold out all my Union Pacific．Of course if it was unwise to be long of it it was equally unwise not to be short of it．So after I got rid of my long stock I sold four thousand shares short．I put out most of it around 162．

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The next day the directors of the Union Pacific Company declared a 10 per cent dividend on the stock．At first nobody in Wall Street believed it．It was too much like the desperate manoeuvre of cornered gamblers．All the newspapers jumped on the directors．But while the Wall Street talent hesitated to act the market boiled over．Union Pacific led，and on huge transactions made a hew high-record price．Some of the room traders made fortunes in an hour and I remember later hearing about a rather dull-witted specialist who made a mistake that put three hundred and fifty thousand dollars in his pocket．He sold his seat the following week and became a gentleman farmer the following month．

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Of course I realised，the moment I heard the news of the declaration of that unprecedented 10 per cent dividend，that I got what I deserved for disregarding the voice of experience and listening to the voice of a tipster．My own convictions I had set aside for the suspicions of a friend，simply because he was disinterested and as a rule knew what he was doing．

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As soon as I saw Union Pacific making new high records I said to myself，“This is no stock for me to be short of．”

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All I had in the world was up as margin in Harding’s office．I was neither cheered nor made stubborn by the knowledge of that fact．What was plain was that I had read the tape accurately and that I had been a ninny to let Ed Harding shake my own resolution．There was no sense in recriminations，because I had no time to lose；and besides，what’s done is done．So I gave an order to take in my shorts．The stock was around 165 when I sent in that order to buy in the four thousand UP．at the market．I had a three-point loss on it at that figure．Well，my brokers paid 172 and 174 for some of it before they were through．I found when I got my reports that Ed Harding’s kindly intentioned interference cost me forty thousand dollars．A low price for a man to pay for not having the courage of his own convictions！It was a cheap lesson．

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I wasn’t worried，because the tape said still higher prices．It was an unusual move and there were no precedents for the action of the directors，but I did this time what I thought I ought to do．As soon as I had given the first order to buy four thousand shares to cover my shorts I decided to profit by what the tape indicated and so I went along．I bought four thousand shares and held that stock until the next morning．Then I got out．I not only made up the forty thousand dollars I had lost but about fifteen thousand besides．If Ed Harding hadn’t tried to save me money I’d have made a killing．But he did me a very great service，for it was the lesson of that episode that，I firmly believe，completed my education as a trader．

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It was not that all I needed to learn was not to take tips but follow my own inclination．It was that I gained confidence in myself and I was able finally to shake off the old method of trading．That Saratoga experience was my last haphazard，hit-or-miss operation．From then on I began to think of basic conditions instead of individual stocks．I promoted myself to a higher grade in the hard school of speculation．It was a long and difficult step to take．

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序号 英文/音标 中文解释 更多操作

York

[jɔːk]

约克郡;〈板球〉使击球员出局

physiological

[ˌfɪziə'lɒdʒɪkl]

adj.生理的;生理学的

exceptional

[ɪk'sepʃənl]

adj.异常的;例外的;特别的;杰出的

daytime

['deɪtaɪm]

n.白天;日间

Boardwalk

['bɔːdwɔːk]

n.木板路;木板铺成的散步道

felted

['feltɪd]

v. 把 ... 制成毡(使 ... 粘结)

Pacific

[pə'sɪfɪk]

adj.太平洋的

nudge

[nʌdʒ]

vt.轻推;轻触;推进

hunch

[hʌntʃ]

n.预感;块;肉峰

bullish

['bʊlɪʃ]

adj.似牡牛的;看涨的;上扬的;乐观的

skeptical

['skeptɪkəl]

adj.怀疑的

blaze

[bleɪz]

n. 火；火焰;

gospel

['ɡɒspl]

n.新约圣经四福书之一;福音;真理

rime

[raɪm]

n.白霜

catastrophe

[kə'tæstrəfi]

n.大灾难;大祸;彻底失败

blindness

['blaɪndnəs]

n.盲目;失明;愚昧

stretchable

[stretʃəbl]

可伸展的;可延伸的

chiefly

['tʃiːfli]

adv.主要地

chap

[tʃæp]

vt. 使(皮肤)裂口，裂开；变粗糙;

dickens

['dɪkɪnz]

n. 魔鬼;究竟

gratis

['ɡrætɪs]

adj.免费的

shortsighted

['ʃɔːt'saɪtɪd]

adj.近视的;缺乏远见的

cantankerous

[kæn'tæŋkərəs]

adj.脾气坏的;好争吵的;难相处的

piker

['paɪkə]

n.谨慎的赌徒;胆小鬼

spurt

[spɜːt]

v.喷出;冲刺

long-distance

[lɒŋ'dɪstəns]

adj.长途的

sucker

['sʌkə(r)]

n.傻瓜;吸盘;吸管;棒棒糖

pony

['pəʊni]

n.小马;小型的东西

Good-by

[gʊd'baɪ]

int.再见

colossal

[kə'lɒsl]

adj. 巨大的; 异常的

unwise

[ˌʌn'waɪz]

adj.不明智的;愚笨的

tipster

['tɪpstə(r)]

n.(提供赛马或股票等投机消息的)情报贩子;密报者

interference

[ˌɪntə'fɪərəns]

n.干扰;妨碍

trader

['treɪdə(r)]

n.商人;商船

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